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Four reasons why the Phillies haven’t been able to sustain hot start
- Updated: June 6, 2016
10:23 AM ET
Was it really just 16 games ago that those nutty Philadelphia Phillies were the biggest surprise in baseball? Seven games over .500? Owners of a better record than both teams that played in last year’s World Series? Actually tied for first place in the NL East — well, for a few hours anyway?
Yep, that’s how 2016 started for the Phillies. The same Phillies who were dead last in ESPN’s preseason Power Rankings. The same Phillies who were projected by Baseball Prospectus to have a zero percent chance to win the World Series. The same Phillies who spent spring training denying they were tanking.
Boy, they showed the world, all right. For 41 games. Then, however, the season kept going. And a long-unbeaten force known as gravity took over.
The Phillies, who will host the Chicago Cubs on Monday night (7 ET, ESPN) aren’t that team anymore. Over the last 2½ weeks, they’ve lost 12 of their last 16 games (and eight of their last 10). Instead of seven games over .500, they now find themselves one game under. Instead of fighting for first place, they’re now glugging along in fourth place, six* games out.
So what happened? Reality happened. Funny how that works for teams like this.
What has gone on over these last 16 games has nothing to do with their beautiful dreams of a picturesque tomorrow, where Keith Law’s sixth-ranked farm system will some day work its magic. They’re free to keep dreaming. We won’t stop them.
But why couldn’t they sustain the shocking success of the first 41 games? It’s not that complicated, to be honest. In fact, we’re about to rip off four quick reasons that it was never sustainable, unless the craziest, most illogical winning season in history was about to break out:
1. The 500* club
For a month and a half, they won with pitching. And there’s a lot to like there. They also won with energy. Which always beats the alternative. But face it. The whole run-scoring aspect of baseball isn’t exactly this team’s specialty. And let’s just say that’s getting more and more noticeable.
Four teams in baseball have already outscored the Phillies by more than 100 runs. The Red Sox have outscored them by more than 150. Pretty incredible. But that’s because, until they busted out with 17 runs over the last three games against the Brewers, the Phillies were barely on pace to score 500 runs this season — and would still wind up with just 523 at this rate. Now let’s put that in perspective.
The 2009 Phillies scored their 523rd run the week after the All-Star break. The 1950 Red Sox scored that many runs before they …
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