The Cubs’ record pace and some surprising reasons for it

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We’re into Month 3 of what’s shaping up to be the best Chicago Cubs team in decades. But will the pace continue? And can the Cubs break the all-time record of 116 wins shared by the 1906 Cubs and 2001 Seattle Mariners? It’s that question and a few others we examine as the Cubs embark on a nine-game road trip through the NL East.

They’re on pace but …

At 39-16, the Cubs actually fell below the 116-win pace after Sunday’s loss to Arizona, but for all practical purposes their .709 winning percentage puts them in striking distance of the record. The problem is that if the recent history of great teams means anything, Chicago is more likely to slow down its winning pace rather than speed up.

On June 6, 2001, the Mariners had a .793 winning percentage but finished with a .716 mark. The 1998 New York Yankees won 114 games for a .704 percentage but were winning at a .768 clip at this point in the season. The 1986 New York Mets won 108 games but on June 6 were on a better pace, posting a .700 win percentage. The 1969 Baltimore Orioles won 109 games but slowed the pace in the later months as well. There are exceptions like the 1975 Reds, who got better as the season progressed, but the majority of big winning teams usually slow down rather than speed up the pace of victories as the season wears on.

The further back you go, the less the theory applies and in talking to baseball people they believe modern travel and different start times can be a contributing factor against keeping up a winning pace in today’s game. In any case, Cubs manager Joe Maddon is apt to rest guys more and more in the hotter months, and might also when the Cubs’ magic number to make the playoffs continues to dwindle. That’s what he did some late last season as the Cubs pulled away in the wild-card race.

Joe Maddon and the Cubs have had plenty to celebrate so far this season. AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast

FanGraphs also thinks the Cubs will slow the pace of winning, down to .590 the rest of the way, giving them about 103 wins for the season. The good news is they …

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