Imagining Manchester United Next Season If Louis van Gaal Stays

Louis van Gaal’s Manchester United future has been the subject of a great deal of speculation over the past few months. Leaving the rumours to one side, though, what might next season be like if he stays?

Would the manager be able to build on the few green shoots of progress that have been visible during the second half of the season, or would the regression that took place between the end of last season and the beginning of this repeat itself?

Would a few key signings transform United’s attack, or would the conservatism that has defined this season continue to dominate?

Let’s take a look at the best- and worst-case scenarios, presenting an argument for each.

The Best-Case Scenario

This argument relies on one key hypothesis: the notion that United have demonstrated considerable improvement since injuries to Anthony Martial, Will Keane, Wayne Rooney and Marouane Fellaini gave Marcus Rashford a route into the starting XI.

From that point forward, United have played 16 games, won 10, drawn three and lost three. With a little help from the incompetence of local rivals Manchester City, they have dragged themselves back into contention for a fourth-place finish in the Premier League. They have also booked themselves a place in the FA Cup final.

Those three losses came against Liverpool in the UEFA Europa League and Tottenham Hotspur and West Bromwich Albion in the league. Of those, only one could be considered dramatically below par. Wins have come at home to Arsenal and away to Manchester City and West Ham United. On balance, there are plenty of positives.

After the Liverpool in March defeat—arguably the emotional low point in United’s recent run—Mark Thompson of football analytics website Every Team Needs A Ron wrote a detailed analysis of United’s positional play.

His thesis was that while United’s execution was flawed, there was significant evidence United’s players were starting to get Van Gaal’s system.

He wrote: “The main thing to take away is that a team of mostly young, often quite new, players managed to (largely) implement a quite sophisticated system that Van Gaal has been trying for months. All of that work in training in tactical sessions is starting to pay off in their understanding. “

This seemed counterintuitive at the time, but the results that have followed—Spurs aside—generally back up this opinion. So if the players are starting to understand Van Gaal’s system a little more deeply, the best-case scenario could have a route to unfolding.

The first key issue to be addressed will be the transfer market. United would have to get a lot more right this summer than they have over the past couple. Of the six senior players added to the squad in summer 2015, only one has been an unqualified success.

Of the players signed in summer 2014, only Daley Blind has been a guaranteed starter this season—though Luke Shaw would likely have been had he not suffered a broken leg in September.

It is a poor hit rate. …

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