Alex Hammond’s Ebor Festival Blog

Alex Hammond looks ahead to Ebor week, with Ralph Beckett’s Kinema taken to land the big race itself on Saturday.

York’s Dante Festival gets under way on Wednesday with the big race the Juddmonte International. Is Postponed a certainty for the mile and a quarter Group One?

No, definitely not. The form of the Roger Varian stable is very dubious at the moment and his horses seem to have been badly affected by the virus that has hit some Newmarket stables. Most trainers test bloods before running, but that doesn’t always help as sometimes it is only once a horse comes under pressure in a race that it is obvious they are still suffering the after effects of a virus.

He has been uneasy in the market in the run up to the meeting and whilst 6/4 (with Sky Bet) looks attractive given his high class form, I won’t be rushing to back him. There’s no doubt Postponed is top class, but the best of his form is over a mile and a half and he is yet to win over a mile and a quarter from four attempts. Horses do make fools of us though and if he hacks up I’ll be the first to hold my hands up.

I think this race is much more open that the market would suggest, so what could beat him? Well Charlie Appleby’s Eclipse winner Hawkbill is on my shortlist and the 4/1 with Sky Bet looks appealing. Like the favourite he comes here on a roll and is improving at a rate of knots. At first look it seems as if he acts better on a softer surface, but he’s expected to be just as effective on fast ground and he is maturing with every run. As a three year old he also gets a handy 8lb weight for age allowance.

With more than 8 runners there are each way opportunities and I think Wings Of Desire could run into a place and is currently a 14/1 shot with Sky Bet. John Gosden’s horses are winning at an incredible strike rate (40%) this month and as the other three year old he also get the weight allowance. He has something to find on ratings, but was a convincing winner of the Dante over this course and distance and drops back to this trip after a decent second to Highland Reel in the King George last month over a mile and a half.

Highland Reel reopposes for Aidan O’Brien who has a great record in this race, but whilst the colt is effective over 10 furlongs, I think 12 furlongs may be his optimum.

The Great Voltigeur is often a good guide for the St Leger, do you think Wednesday’s contest will have any bearing on the final Classic of the season at Doncaster?

Well Aidan O’Brien’s Idaho is the ante post favourite for the Leger (4/1 with Sky Bet) at this point and if all goes to plan he should win this mile and a half Group 2. He’s a shade of odds on for the York race after placed efforts in the English and Irish Derbies, although …

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