Failure to Fix Defense Will Cost Buffalo Bills Dearly in 2016

Two years ago, the Buffalo Bills fielded the NFL’s fourth-ranked defense. No team in the league had more sacks in 2014 than the Bills’ 54. With the arrival of Rex Ryan as head coach last year, that defense was supposed to progress from very good to great.

That defense was going to propel the Bills to the playoffs for the first time in the 21st century.

Of course, that didn’t happen. Instead of getting better the defense got worse. Far worse. The Bills dropped to 19th in the NFL in total defense, free-fell to 31st in the NFL in sacks and missed the postseason yet again.

The Bills took steps to address this in the offseason. But between bad luck and bad decisions, the Bills find themselves right back where they started on that side of the ball as they kick off their preseason Saturday at home against the Indianapolis Colts.

And that’s going to leave the Bills where they’ve always been of late when the regular season finishes—on the outside looking in.

To say that the Bills were aggressive on the defensive side of the ball in the 2016 NFL draft is an understatement. After cutting bait on Mario Williams after a miserable 2015 campaign, the Bills were in need of a pass-rusher to complement Jerry Hughes. The team thought they had their man when they settled on Clemson’s Shaq Lawson with the 19th overall pick.

Mike Mayock of NFL Network hailed the pick at the time. “He can play inside or outside, and up or down,” Mayock said. “He has an explosive lower body and violent hands, and is quick off the edge.”

The good feelings didn’t last long. It was known before the draft that Lawson had a shoulder injury that might require surgery at some point. But as Yahoo’s Eric Edholm wrote, Bills team doctors cleared Lawson, stating that surgery wasn’t a short-term concern.

Not one month later, the Bills released a statement saying the opposite as Lawson went under the knife:

The Buffalo Bills are taking measures to prevent the possibility of Shaq Lawson aggravating a preexisting shoulder condition during the season. While he could continue to play, the Bills medical staff has determined that surgery is the best course of action for the overall health of his shoulder moving forward. He had an occurrence of the condition last week, but that would not preclude him from participating in the offseason program. Shaq is scheduled for surgery tomorrow on his shoulder with a rehabilitation program to follow. A timetable for his return is still being established.

The surgery carried with it a 4-6 month recovery timetable, so there was still some hope that Lawson wouldn’t miss much regular-season time. However, as ESPN.com’s Mike Rodak tweeted, those hopes have since been all but dashed:

Bills LB Shaq Lawson is expected back between Weeks 6 and 8, source tells ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter. https://t.co/UsRcV764MQ

— Mike Rodak (@mikerodak) August 10, 2016

If Lawson will indeed be out that long, he’s a near lock to open the season on the physically unable to perform list. Once he finally does return, he’ll be way behind in his acclimation to the professional game. Add in that Lawson’s making the switch from defensive end to outside linebacker (a transition that takes time), and his rookie season is already essentially a wash.

But wait! It gets better!

The Buffalo run defense also took a step backward a year ago, albeit a smaller one. So the Bills bid adieu to underwhelming inside linebacker Nigel Bradham, replacing him with second-round pick Reggie Ragland.

The 247-pound Ragland was widely considered the top inside linebacker prospect of the 2016 draft, especially against the run. It was a pick that once again had Mayock banging the table for the new-look Bills defense. 

“The Bills weren’t very good on defense last year,” Mayock said. “So, in the first round …

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