Should you trust Rawls as an RB1 in 2016 drafts?

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Updated: July 18, 2016

1:21 PM ET

Was Thomas Rawls’ 2015 breakthrough a signal that he has arrived as a member of fantasy football’s elite, or have fantasy owners merely developed that opinion from his limited sample in the NFL?

Rawls is ranked as our No. 20 player overall, and No. 10 running back, though he’s being selected slightly later in average drafts: 26th overall and 12th at his position. To evaluate the merits of selecting him that soon, we asked analysts Matt Bowen and Tristan H. Cockcroft to debate some of the factors behind Rawls’ value.

Rawls’ ongoing recovery from his ankle injury

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Bowen: Rawls rushed for 830 yards as a rookie in 2015 for the Seattle Seahawks, and he also led the NFL with 5.65 yards per carry. This cat can play. But will the second-year man be back on the field at the start of camp? I’m talking about actual practice — not some sideline show with the training staff going through monitored drills and conditioning work.

The reports? Yeah, they look good for Rawls after suffering a season-ending ankle injury versus the Ravens in Week 14. He’s expected to be on the field, ready to roll. And even if Rawls is somewhat limited (or eased back into the fold by Pete Carroll and the club), seeing actual camp reps should tell us plenty.

Remember, reps are the key here. Those are critical to regular-season prep. Set the pads. Beat up the legs a little bit. Go through that period when the body starts to break down before recovering around mid-August. Gotta have it. And if Rawls is getting those reps (even under the watchful eye of Carroll), fantasy owners should put a high grade on the Seahawks’ No. 1 back.

Cockcroft: A broken ankle (including torn ligaments) ended Rawls’ mini-breakthrough 2015 campaign after Week 14, and the timing of his healthy return — return to full health — should have much influence upon his fantasy draft stock.

Is he fully healthy now? Will he be by the start of Seahawks training camp July 30? The Aug. 13 preseason opener? The Sept. 11 regular-season opener? Or … gasp … later?

The offseason — especially the weeks leading up to training camp — is rife with player optimism in the health/fitness department. Frankly, we as fantasy owners always seem to assume the most optimistic outlooks when it comes to injuries. Remember Alshon Jeffery’s preseason injuries entering 2015?

That’s why Rawls’ confident comments leading up to training camp shouldn’t be taken to heart; these followed an offseason during which Seahawks coach Pete Carroll couldn’t promise an uninterrupted training camp for Rawls. It’s one positive step in a healing process that’s no guarantee to be setback-free, and one that by all means should cause Carroll to play things conservatively with Rawls’ preseason usage.

Preseason reps would prove extremely useful for a player who was afforded only seven full, uninterrupted starts (primary-back starts) as a rookie.

If Thomas Rawls isn’t 100 percent in training camp, how big of a role can rookie C.J. Prosise earn for the Seahawks? APCompetition in the backfield

Cockcroft: This is what compounds my previous concern. The Seahawks seemingly tipped their hand concerning a need for depth behind Rawls during the NFL draft, selecting three running backs — C.J. Prosise, Alex Collins and Zac Brooks — who now stand as competition for snaps, along with 2015 returnee Christine Michael. All four likely enjoy one advantage: A fully healthy training camp to catch a coach’s …

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