UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Garbrandt staff picks and predictions

Bloody Elbow’s staff has made its predictions for Sunday’s enticing UFC Fight Night 88 card in Las Vegas, Nevada. Only Anton Tabuena is picking Cody Garbrandt to beat Thomas Almeida in the main event. Meanwhile, Jed Meshew and Eddie Mercado have got Jeremy Stephens spoiling Renan Barao’s move up to 145 pounds. These pick explanations all pale in comparison to Phil Mackenzie’s masterpiece for Chris Camozzi vs. Vitor Miranda, which you better read.

Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Victor Rodriguez entered all of his predictions on Tuesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

Thomas Almeida vs. Cody Garbrandt

Anton Tabuena: Am I the only one who thinks Garbrandt has a really good chance here, stylistically? Almeida gets reckless and ignores defense at times, and Garbrandt has the tools to make him pay if he fights disciplined. Almeida is the more potent finisher, and while some might call me crazy for saying this, I think Cody has better hands too. To me this has ‘upset’ written all over it. Cody Garbrandt by TKO.

Mookie Alexander: Will Garbrandt go for takedowns? Can he crack the hittable Almeida and straight up stop him? I wouldn’t be surprised if Garbrandt tried to lessen the danger of Almeida’s stand-up by wrestling with Almeida, but that’s easier said than done. Almeida’s multi-layered attack is a treat to watch and I think it’s only a matter of time before Almeida hurts him to the body or lands some amazing strike that puts Cody out. Thomas Almeida via KO, round 2.

Jed Meshew: This fight is hot fire and I hate every minute of it. Both Almeida and Garbrandt are top shelf prospects and shouldn’t be fighting one another. I don’t know why Sean Shelby and Joe Silva insist on making prospects death matches but I’d rather they fight down the road when both have more seasoning. Anyway, Almeida is dope and Garbrandt is on his way to dopeness. Almeida’s has a diverse array of attacks on the feet but is somewhat reckless and hittable. Garbrandt has better defense but is less offensively potent and is vulnerable during protracted exchanges. If Almeida gets hurt early, as he is wont to do, then Garbrandt could easily finish him but I think Almeida’s willingness to attack the body will slow Garbrandt down and open him up for head shots later in the fight. Head shots by Thomas Almeida mean knock outs. Almeida by KO, round 3.

Nick Baldwin: This is going to be a fun one until someone gets slept. That someone will be Cody Garbrandt. Both fighters excel in the standup department, but Almeida has more tools on the feet and should be able to finish Garbrandt early in the fight. Garbrandt could mix it up by taking Almeida down — and that’s what he should do — but I doubt he’ll go in that direction. Thomas Almeida via TKO; Round 1.

Eddie Mercado: The power of Garbrandt vs the various tools of Almeida… in a 5 round fight. If Almeida can avoid early trouble and find a way to zap some of the steam from Garbrandt’s punches, then I can see him pouring it on in the later rounds to get the finish. Should be exciting no matter what! Thomas Almeida by TKO; Round 4.

Zane Simon: I just don’t think Garbrandt has the technical depth yet to make Almeida pay regularly for making mistakes. And I think Almeida is growing smarter and better about the chances he takes and the strikes he uses. Garbrandt is almost certainly going to have to land more than one big shot, and hurt Almeida more than once to put him away, and when Almeida gets hurt he tends to turn things up and fight better. And it’s not like Garbrandt hasn’t been hittable against opponents willing and able to throw at him. Thomas Almeida via TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Almeida: Jed, Mookie, Nick, Tim, Phil, Eddie, Stephie, ZaneStaff picking Garbrandt: Anton

Renan Barao vs. Jeremy Stephens

Anton Tabuena: Stephens is really a live dog here. There’s a lot of question marks on Barao and how he will look after two incredibly bad and long beatings. And now he’s moving up to face someone who is bigger and hits even harder. If Barao fights patiently and just tries to use his speed and technique to pick him apart, he has a very very good chance of winning, but his willingness to trade and stay in the pocket may be his downfall. Barao is the safe pick, but don’t be shocked if Stephens takes him out in an upset. Renan Barao by Decision.

Mookie Alexander: Dillashaw took about 15 million strikes to put Barao out in their 2nd fight, so Barao’s chin isn’t the problem. I think the knockout wins he got over Wineland and Faber have mischaracterized him a bit as being more dangerous standing than he is on the ground. Barao’s a very good striker, but I think he’s more talented as a top-control grappler with his Nova Uniao arm-triangle choking abilities. Stephens is not an easy matchup for him in his UFC 145 lbs debut, but for all of Jeremy’s punching power, he really thrives primarily on fights with a lot of chaos in it. This is why Bermudez is a perfect matchup for him and Holloway could pick him apart systematically and stuff his takedowns. If Barao gets into a firefight, that’s bad, but I think he has what it takes to shut down Stephens’ offense to get the decision win. Renan Barao by unanimous decision.

Jed Meshew: I think people are sleeping on how fun of a fight this is. This will be our first look at Barao as a featherweight in the UFC and I’m interested to see how the change suits him. His speed should be a nice advantage at 145 it’s just a matter of if his power translate upwards. Neither man should be able to take the other down so we are looking at a kickboxing match. Barao throws more volume but Stephens is more accurate and has that world ender power. Barao would be best served staying on the outside and feeding Stephens a steady diet of leg kicks instead of getting drawn into a firefight with a guy in possession of much heavier artillery and a full class bigger than Barao is used to. I don’t think he’ll be able to do that for 15 minutes; Barao throws at a good rate which means he gets hit at a decent rate and Stephens is not the guy you wanna get hit by. Dillashaw jawed Barao twice. Stephens will put him in a box. Stephens by KO, round 2.

Nick Baldwin: Renan Barao hasn’t been the same since his first loss to T.J. Dillashaw and that’s not changing anytime soon. I can’t rely on Barao’s confidence and him being mentally strong anymore. Physically, he’s also different. I think his timing and speed is worse. He’s perhaps not as accurate. That said, I don’t think Jeremy Stephens is good enough to beat a fighter like Barao. Barao is smart, despite his recent setbacks, and picks Stephens apart on the feet en route to a decision. Renan Barao via Unanimous Decision.

Eddie Mercado: The odds on this match are a little long for my liking. Sure, Barao is a former champion but I’m not sure if Barao will have the power to hurt Stephens on the feet. I am also uncertain of Barao’s ability to achieve a takedown in this fight. I can see Barao starting with a lot of volume but becoming a bit gunshy as he tastes the power of Stephens. Jeremy Stephens via TKO; Round 2.

Zane Simon: Jeremy Stephens gets all the credit in the world for being a monstrous power striker, but if we’re being real, other than KOing a green Rafael aos Anjos, he rarely puts away elite competition. Mostly it’s because he hasn’t been able to pull the trigger often enough to do more than hurt an opponent. The Dennis Bermudez fight is probably his best showing in that regard and it saw him hurt and hit a lot and his success owed a lot to Bermudez’s “defense last” style of striking. Barao is not that dude. He tends to draw opponents into charging him and then returns fire fast and hard. And Stephens, for all his power, has rarely been a great returning strikes while getting hit. I think Stephens spends too much time at range getting picked off by kicks, and if it hits the mat he’ll get overwhelmed. Renan Barao via decision.

Staff picking Barao: Mookie, Nick, Tim, Anton, Phil, Stephie, ZaneStaff picking Stephens: Jed, Eddie

Tarec Saffiedine vs. Rick Story

Anton Tabuena: If that cut on his knee doesn’t affect him, which I doubt it will, this is Tarec’s fight to lose. Story may be able to grind him up and make things ugly, but Saffiedine should have a significant advantage on the feet. Tarec Saffiedine by Decision.

Mookie Alexander: Probably would pick Saffiedine had we not known about the cut Saffiedine suffered on his knee a few days ago, which nearly resulted in his removal from the event. Story hasn’t fought in over a year, which gives me concern over potential cage rust on his side of the table. Saffiedine can probably leg kick and takedown stuff his way to a victory here, but he also isn’t nearly powerful enough to end a fight at any given moment. It’s a bit of a gamble, but Saffiedine knowingly not coming into this fight at 100% has chased me away from picking him. Story will get the win with his wrestling and doing just enough on the feet, even against a better striker. Rick Story by unanimous decision.

Jed: Both of these guys are sneaky good welterweights. Saffiedine is one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC and I’m of the opinion that Rick Story should undefeated since his loss to Demian Maia in 2012 and as we’ve seen there is absolutely no shame in losing to Demian Maia. Story has also fought better competition than Saffiedine and has just looked sharper. Add in the fact that Saffiedine almost withdrew from this bout a week ago and I’m definitely feeling another upset here. If Saffiedine keeps it standing and kicks Story’s leg off, don’t be surprised but seems more likely that Story can hold his own on the feet and score some takedowns to win rounds. Story by decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Big fan of both guys, will be a shame to see one of them lose. We don’t know how Story will look, but I think that injuries have really ravaged Tarec Saffiedine, and that his prime slipped past us just after he won the Strikeforce strap. Since hitting the UFC one of the things which has really struck me is how fragile he’s been. Hyun Gyu Lim dropped him (no shame there) but Rory knocked him cold, and Ellenberger knocked him down with a grazing shot. Story is an excellent pressure fighter- ultra durable, very strong cardio, happy to take shots to deal attritional damage. He was able to bully prime Thiago Alves, and Alves was much stronger, tougher and more dangerous than Tarec looks nowadays. Rick Story by TKO, round 2.

Eddie Mercado: Both guys have been at war with injuries which sucks because both guys are pretty darn good. Story has not fought inside the octagon since 2014 where Saffiedine had a lone fight this past January. Man, i’m just hoping that both guys are healthy. So many unknowns in this fight but i’m going to lean towards Story. I think he will be able to mix it up better than Saffiedine and possibly get a late finish. Rick Story by TKO; Round 3.

Zane Simon: I can’t honestly imagine picking Rick Story off this layoff. I realize he’s got the style to beat Saffiedine and I realize that Saffiedine may be injured in a way that hampers him, but it’s been years (multiple) since Story last fought. Maybe he’s back and in …

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