Playing deeper, Fowler a more effective defender

Sometimes, you have to dig deep into the numbers or read between the lines of public comments to find hints about changes players and teams plan to make. Maybe it’s the unexpected decision of an entire team to turn their plate approach upside down, or to load up on curveballs. Perhaps it’s the obvious addition of a new pitch, even when the player insists he hasn’t done anything.

And sometimes, they make it extremely easy on you. We knew going into the season that the Cubs planned to move their outfielders deeper. How did we know? Because manager Joe Maddon told Cubs.com exactly that during Spring Training:

“To get guys a little bit deeper is probably the right thing to do. Keep the extra-base hit out of it and permit the single,” Maddon said. “Now, when the ball bloops in front of you in the latter part of the game and the run scores, everybody goes nuts. Percentage-wise, it’s probably better to play these guys a little deeper.”

For an analytically-inclined team like the Cubs, that makes all the sense in the world. Balls over an outfielder’s head are more likely to fall for doubles and triples. Balls that land shallower are almost always singles. As Maddon noted, the percentages favor the deeper player, even if the player — often sensitive to pitchers not wanting poorly hit balls to fall in — doesn’t always like it.

That’s particularly relevant to center fielder Dexter Fowler, the only returning Cubs outfielder playing in the same spot as 2015. (Jason Heyward has arrived to play right, while left field has seen Chris Coghlan [trade] and Kyle Schwarber [injury] cede time to a combination of Jorge Soler, Kris Bryant and Matt Szczur.) As Fowler told the Chicago Tribune, his first five-plus …

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