UFC 206 Statistical Matchup Analysis: Holloway vs. Pettis

The interim Ultimate Fighting Championship featherweight title will be up for grabs in the UFC 206 headliner on Saturday at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto. Though it took an injury to the original main event and the invention of an unnecessary interim belt, the fight between Max Holloway and Anthony Pettis, two of the UFC’s most exciting fighters, is deserving of the spotlight. Holloway, who turned 25 six days before the fight, is riding a division-record nine-fight winning streak. His last loss was against former featherweight king Conor McGregor in 2013. Since then, six of his nine wins have not needed the judges’ stamp, even as he has faced increasingly higher-ranked competition. He was last in action in June, when he took a unanimous decision from onetime title challenger Ricardo Lamas. This will be Holloway’s second fight of 2016, making it only the second time in his UFC career that he fought less than four times in a calendar year.On the other side of the cage will be Pettis, the former UFC and World Extreme Cagefighting lightweight champion. By the end of 2014, Pettis was arguably one of the best lightweights ever, boasting a 10-2 combined WEC and UFC record, with eight finishes and a flawless 3-0 mark in title fights. Hard times have followed for the offensive dynamo, as he lost three straight fights at lightweight before dropping to 145 pounds to reverse the losing streak. He was last in action in August, when he submitted Charles Oliveira in his featherweight debut on the opposite end of Canada. This will be his fourth fight of 2016 — the most he has ever fought in the UFC in a calendar year. There are a lot of angles from which to look at this fight. Let us start with the Tale of the Tape (current odds): As far as the anthropometrics are concerned, there is not much separation between the two. Pettis’ three-inch reach advantage is the most prominent difference — a non-negligible edge coming into a fight that will likely be a kickboxing match that takes place in an MMA setting. The experience factor is also tough to call. On one hand, by the time Holloway made his UFC debut, Pettis was already a highly ranked lightweight and WEC champion. On the other hand, in the three additional years of professional fighting, Pettis has only fought once more than Holloway. The real difference is this: Pettis has fought in the championship rounds twice, whereas Holloway has never been past the third round. How their conditioning will hold up in the latter rounds could prove to be significant, since there is a good chance this fight will go to the judges; Pettis has never been finished, and Holloway has only been finished once, when he was submitted in his UFC debut. Holloway and Pettis share two common opponents in Oliveira and Jeremy Stephens. Holloway and Pettis beat both of them. The Oliveira fights do not tell; the Brazilian was injured early against Holloway and it was Pettis’ first time cutting down to featherweight. Stephens provides an interesting parallel, though. …

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