NFL1000: Is Jameis Winston Ready to Lead the Buccaneers Back to the Playoffs?

If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers miss the playoffs in the 2016 season, it will have been a full decade since the franchise made the postseason. The last time it happened—2007—Jon Gruden was still the head coach, Jeff Garcia—now 46—was the primary quarterback, Joey Galloway—currently 45—was the top receiver, and the delightfully-named Stylez G. White was the primary pass-rusher.

The Bucs have gone through four coaches since Gruden was let go following the 2008 season, most recently replacing Lovie Smith with former offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter in part because Koetter developed a positive working relationship with quarterback Jameis Winston in 2015. Given Koetter’s lack of head coaching experience at the NFL level (the last time Koetter was a head coach anywhere was at Arizona State in 2006), this was a clear signal from management: As goes Jameis Winston, so goes the rest of the team.

Not an uncommon practice, especially for a quarterback selected first overall in the 2015 draft. Winston validated the Bucs’ faith in his abilities in his rookie year, completing 269 passes in 436 attempts for 4,042 yards, 22 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. He finished 16th among all quarterbacks in Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted metrics, ahead of Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning and Matt Ryan. Most importantly, it appeared that the Buccaneers had the game’s most important position covered for the first time in a long time.

Winston’s 2016 season is right on point with his rookie year—he’s on pace for 359 completions in 581 attempts for 4,240 yards, 31 touchdowns and 15 picks. The question now becomes a bit larger and more pressurized: Can Winston lead his team back to the postseason for the first time in 10 years?

Since we’re bringing up current ages in this piece, it’s important to remember that Winston won’t turn 23 until next January, and there are times when the youth and relative inexperience shows. But the tape shows a player who came into the league with a number of outstanding attributes, and with Koetter’s help, he’s built on them.

Winston’s most obvious attribute is his fearlessness in the pocket. He’s touted as a running quarterback, which may be more a cosmetic analysis than anything based on the film. He is mobile, but what I’ve appreciated since his Florida State days is how he’ll stay in the pocket until routes have developed and make good throws under considerable pressure—indeed, even when he’s about to get his block knocked off. According to Pro Football Focus’ charting metrics, Winston has been under pressure on 38.9 percent of his passes, and in those situations, he’s completed 59 percent of his throws for 876 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions. That touchdown total ties him with Rodgers, and only Andrew Luck and Tyrod Taylor have more touchdowns under duress.

Jameis Winston has all the tools to be one of the league’s better quarterbacks. What does the tape say about where he’s taken that talent, and what does it mean for the Buccaneers?

In my tape review of Winston, I wanted to start with three different interceptions, because they tell different stories. I basically organized his 2016 interceptions into three categories:

Winston didn’t see converging defenders and made a …

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