Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Jacksonville began 2016 with great expectations; instead, the Jaguars are playing out the string in a lost season, thanks in part to a 1-4 straight up and 2-3 against the spread performance at home. Jacksonville looks to salvage some pride when it hosts the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Broncos opened as five-point favorites; the total was 43 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.0-21.2 Broncos (NFL picks on every game)

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

The Broncos are looking to bounce back after taking a tough 30-27 overtime loss to rival Kansas City last week. Denver trailed the Chiefs early 9-0, rallied to take a 24-16 lead with just three minutes to go but allowed Kansas City to drive 75 yards for a touchdown and a game-tying two-point conversion. The Broncos then lost the game late in overtime when a long field goal attempt came up short, giving the Chiefs good field position and just enough time to drive to their own game-winning kick.

Denver outgained Kansas City 464-273 and outrushed the Chiefs 124-83. But the Broncos also …

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