Statcast of the Day: Wind costs Rizzo a homer

CHICAGO — A night after a strong wind blowing out to center produced a shocking lack of offense in a Cleveland win, a colder evening with the wind blowing in at 7 mph at first pitch saw three home runs as Cleveland won, 7-2, in Game 4 of the Fall Classic on Saturday to go up 3-1 in the Series and push the Cubs to the brink of elimination. You can predict the weather, but apparently you can’t predict how it will change the game.

Within the span of an inning, Chicago’s Anthony Rizzo and Cleveland’s Jason Kipnis each barreled baseballs with similar exit velocities, 104.1 mph for Rizzo and 104.8 mph for Kipnis. Rizzo’s had a bit more elevation, with a 25 degree launch angle as opposed to a 21 degree launch angle for Kipnis.

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Rizzo’s should have gone further, because he put a bit more air under it. Instead, Kipnis outslugged him by 41 feet for a three-run homer, while Rizzo settled for a double. Why? That’s where the wind comes in — that, and batted-ball direction, as Rizzo’s ball went to left field, which is where the wind was blowing in from, while Kipnis hit his over the right-field fence.

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Let’s compare what usually happens with these two types of balls. As you can see in the image below, each of these batted-ball types are overwhelmingly hits, with an expected average of .876 for the Kipnis hit and .968 for Rizzo’s. But while the ball that Rizzo hit turns into a home run 81 percent of …

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