UFC 203 Statistical Matchup Analysis: Miocic vs. Overeem

The Ultimate Fighting Championship heavyweight title has not been kind to the home team lately. Cain Velasquez lost his championship to Fabricio Werdum in front of a supportive Mexico City crowd; Werdum, in turn, lost it to Stipe Miocic in front of his Brazilian countrymen. Miocic will now try to buck the trend by defending his belt for the first time in his hometown of Cleveland, where he faces Alistair Overeem on Saturday in the UFC 203 (current odds) main event. Miocic has fought a combined 3:41 in his two fights this year. This will be his third fight of 2016 and the fifth straight bout in which he fights a former champion of some sort. Standing opposite the defending champ will be Overeem, a longtime MMA veteran who has fought in virtually every major promotion during the course of his career. Overeem has undergone a recent career resurgence following a shaky start in the UFC. The former K-1, Dream and Strikeforce champion went 2-3 in his first five UFC fights, but he has since reeled off four straight wins, three of which came by knockout or technical knockout. This will be his second fight of 2016 and the fourth consecutive bout against a champion or former champion.There are a lot of angles to this matchup, so let’s see what the Tale of the Tape tells us: A bit of housekeeping up front: The numbers for Overeem are limited to his Strikeforce and UFC heavyweight fights. The purpose is to accurately depict the fighter he is now, so statistics from over 10 years ago and at different weight classes were not used. Anthropometrically, they are nearly mirror images of each other. They are the same height and have the same reach, and they weigh in at negligible weight differences. To compound their physical similarities, they prefer the orthodox stance, are coming off similar layoffs and have identical finish rates in the UFC. The real difference between them lies in their experience. Overeem has been fighting in the biggest promotions all over the world since Y2K was a thing — 11 years before Miocic took his first professional fight. With two years and 39 fights on the Ohio native, there is little about Miocic that Overeem has not seen before. At the same time, this also translates into much more tread on the tires for the Dutchman; Overeem has been knocked out in all three of his UFC losses, whereas Miocic has only been finished once in that timeframe. This dynamic of striking ability versus ability to take a punch will be an essential component in the fight. The final variable to take into account is their respective camps. One can never doubt the consummate preparedness of Greg Jackson-trained fighters. Much of Overeem’s recent success has been a result of sticking to a game plan with greater fidelity; not surprisingly, these pieces came together for Overeem when he started training with Jackson full-time in 2014. Strong Style Fight Team has been a perfect fit thus far for …

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