Novak Djokovic’s Injuries Make Him a Long Shot to Win 2016 US Open

There was Novak Djokovic at a changeover just five games into Round 1 at the 2016 U.S. Open. The trainer vigorously massaged his upper right arm. Was this good news? It wasn’t his left wrist, at least, the one that had the world No. 1 concerned heading into the year’s final major.

He went right back to work, got his first break and closed out the first set 6-3. Easy, right?

Except Djokovic is not playing like King Novak, the near-invincible champion who held the Grand Slam following his French Open title nearly three months ago. His first serve was weaker, his backhand tentative, and he was feeling his way into the match against Jerzy Janowicz—a big, talented (and underachieving) player who can be downright dangerous on his better days.

Howard Fendrich for the AP (via Yahoo Sports) reported the drop-off:

During the match, Djokovic hit first serves around 100 mph, sometimes slower — 25 mph or so below what’s normal for him. He hit second serves in the low 80s mph. He flexed that right arm, the one he has used to wield a racket on the way to 12 Grand Slam titles, and appeared generally unhappy.

No, this was not the genuine Djokovic. He didn’t lay into high backhands with his eyes blazing the way they do when he has murdered Rafael Nadal’s forehand the past two years. Instead, he poked around for the appropriate shots and angles in hopes of guiding the mercurial Janowicz to self-destruction.

Nearly two hours into the match, Janowicz had leveled things at one set apiece. It seemed to anger Djokovic, who promptly went out and beat up Janowicz by winning 12 of the final 15 games to turn the final box score into some deceptively crooked numbers.

The win was a relief, but Djokovic’s nagging injuries are a factor. Unless he suddenly plays with his usual blend of aggressiveness and patience, unless he is fully confident to swing away, well, even his championship mettle won’t be enough to survive six top-level opponents, let alone the grueling demands to power through a second weekend.

At this point, Djokovic looks like a long shot to win the U.S. Open.

Accumulative Toll

Djokovic has been so dominant since 2015 in winning five of six major titles that too many observers and fans talked about him racking up many more like he was plucking peaches off a tree. He was at his pinnacle following that French Open championship, but our Bleacher Report post-analysis also …

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