UFC on FOX 21 odds, gambling strategy guide

It’s fight night and so we are back again with another gambling preview of the fights, the odds, and my own personal breakdown of where the value lies. Fights with debuting fighters get less in-depth analysis because stats aren’t available and same goes for fighters with only a couple of UFC bouts.

Also, just to clarify because I’ve gotten some questions about this: the number after the odds on each fighter is the percentage probability of victory that those odds imply. That means Carlos Condit at -130 says he will win that fight 56.52% of the time. If you think he wins it more than that, then you should bet it because there is inherent value in the line.

As always, all stats come from FightMetric and all the odds are from Best Fight Odds. Net Value means how much money you would have made if you bet $100 on that fighter in every one of his/her fights that odds could be found for and is calculated using the closing odds for each fight.

Doubly as always, I’m trying to provide the most thorough guide I can for those who want to legally bet or who just enjoy following along. If you are a person who chooses to gamble, only do so legally, responsibly, and at your own risk.

Breakdown

Full disclosure: I’m an unabashed Carlos Condit mark. I love watching him fight and have been pretty vocal about thinking he should have beaten Robbie Lawler for the welterweight title and that he is the best 170-pound fighter in the world. As such, I think he is going to finish Demian Maia.

Maia’s is one of the most interesting fighters in MMA, a throwback to a time of one-dimensional grapplers in an age where striking is the more vaunted skillset. He succeeds in this because he is the very best grappler in the world of MMA and one of the most effective wrestlers on top of that. Maia’s game is all about getting a tie up with his opponent and from there it is a decision tree of options. In the clinch, he has foot sweeps and throws (dude hit a lateral drop on Chael Sonnen…think about that for a moment) and he can drop levels to attack the legs as well. Once in on a single leg, he can chain attacks and directional shifts, moving from side to side and changing angles to doggedly pursue the takedown. He also has an excellent sweep game meaning he is comfortable pulling guard and transitioning from that into a roll up single or using an excellent arm drag to sneak around to the back.

Once on the ground, there is no one better at BJJ. His game is fundamentally flawless and positionally dominant. He grapples like he wrote the textbook on it 40 years ago and has just been doing it over and over again since. He moves from position to position and he rarely opens up for strikes that would create openings for his opponents to scramble through. Eventually, he finds his way to mount or back mount and locks in the fight ending choke.

On the feet, Maia… well, he’s there. He knows how to punch and kick but still looks gangly and uncomfortable doing so. His striking mostly exists to disguise his relentless takedown attempts. Predominantly, he uses a jab feint to set up his outside shot. Beyond that, there really isn’t much to write home about here.

Conversely, Condit is an offensive dynamo on the feet who can and will throw 40 different strikes in 100 different combinations. He kicks well, he punches well and he does both with power and tons of volume. Volume and repetition are the keys here. Condit is not an organic striker, he doesn’t throw natural counters in transition. Instead, Condit takes planned bombing runs in on his opponents, throwing a set combination and then doing it again with changes commiserate with the counters his opponents used the last time. It is an effective style for him mostly because Carlos Condit is phenomenally conditioned and has the best chin in MMA history. Eating huge counters doesn’t matter if your head is made of concrete and steel apparently.

Condit’s biggest weakness is his wrestling which is not good, though improving. The nature of his offense opens Condit up for level change counter takedowns and Condit doesn’t have the hip ability to counter these effectively. Instead, he opts to use switches and sub counters to create scrambles and get back to his feet. When an opponent lands a clean takedown on him, Condit has an active guard and uses his length well to tie up his opponents for stalls.

To me, the change to five rounds put Condit firmly in the driver’s seat of this fight. Condit has incredible cardio and Maia has been prone to fading. Maia will likely have success early because of his ability to wrestle and grapple, but it is important to remember that Maia doesn’t just tie everyone he rolls with into knots. Ryan LaFlare survived five rounds with Maia and really beat him up in the final round when Maia was spent. Moreover, Condit’s grappling game matches up pretty well against Maia’s as outlined here by BJJ Scout. Condit is the far more dynamic fighter and 25-minute fights favor fighters with more ways to win. I expect Condit to make Maia work hard early and take over as the fight goes on and Condit’s pressure and work rate tire out the BJJ wizard. Maia certainly can win, but in a five-round fight, I will never pick against Carlos Condit and I like him for a bet here.

Breakdown

Anthony Pettis is one of the most offensively gifted fighters in MMA history. When allowed to work at his preferred range, Pettis’ striking game is predatory and lethal in a way few are. He has some of the best kicks in MMA and equally strong boxing, though not a tremendous combination worker. He is also top shelf athlete and dynamic grappler, with improving takedown defense (though it’s still not a strong suit). Pettis’ shortcomings are mostly tactical. He has never developed sharp footwork which allows him to be backed into the fence where he is far less dangerous and where fighters can get in on his hips to wrestle (a la Eddie Alvarez). A consistent, well-executed pressure game from a fighter who can’t be backed off with one or two strikes is the way to beat Pettis.

Charles Oliveira is an offensive dynamo in his own right but his success comes on the mat. Oliveira is one of the very best grapplers in the UFC and having him latched on anywhere near your neck is a recipe for disaster. On the feet, Oliveira is a somewhat wooden striker who …

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