UFC on Fox: Maia vs. Condit – Anthony Pettis vs Charles Oliveira Toe to Toe Preview

Pettis and Oliviera try to own their haunted pasts by taking control of the future this August 27, 2016 at the Rogers Arena in Vancouver, Canada.

One sentence summary:

David: Charles Oliveira finally gets the high profile fight he deserves against Pettis, not the one his career didn’t need so early.

Phil: Physical versus technical frailty inside a washing machine of high-octane grappling and striking

Stats

Record: Pettis 18-5 Oliveira 21-5-1 NC

Odds: Pettis -200 Oliveira +170

History / Introduction to Both Fighters

David: Pettis is like a Halloween sequel at this point: trending toward returns so diminishing* you start to question the value the original incarnation even had. No disrespect to Carpenter of course. I don’t think it’s that the emperor wears no clothes. More like, he was just wearing a Girbaud this whole time. Or something. It’s hard to really talk about Pettis without insulting him. By that I mean, his status is just mediocre in proportion to what it used to be. And unlike other former champs, he doesn’t have any real excuse. He’s only a year removed from his title, and in his athletic prime.

Phil: The problem for Pettis is that his style was “solved” and that he wasn’t picking up on the reasons why. He said after the Alvarez fight that he was never going to catch up with the wrestling of his opponents, but the problem wasn’t grappling per se: it was foot position, the inability to control the mid range with boxing and a clinch game devoid of offense. Opponents could line up shots over and over. These flaws were promptly exploited by Edson Barboza, who gave him exactly the fight he wanted but simply beat him with better boxing and footwork.

David: Oliveira has been on a solid run. He has yet to functionally lose since being defeated by Frankie Edgar. I don’t think his run reflects an evolutionary leap in his game, but it does reflect what should have been his career trajectory from the get go.

Phil: We’ve always talked about how Oliveira was thrown to the wolves too early because, well, it’s true. But, I think it’s worth thinking about the fact that he probably would have picked up some shocker losses even if he’d been fighting a lesser level of competition. The combination of tons of aggression and basic physical fragility isn’t one which lends itself to long, unbroken win streaks.

What’s at stake?

David: This is that rare fight where the pressure is so disproportionately on one fighter to perform. Think CM Punk versus that guy. Or Rougned Odor vs Jose Bautista.

Phil: I do think that Oliveira puts a lot of pressure on himself, even if the public pressure is on Pettis. Apparently he was utterly devastated after his loss to Edgar. Regardless of the potential nosedive of the loser, I think the winner goes into upper-tier competition, or perhaps gets a relative action fighter softball in a Yair Rodriguez fight.

Where do they want it?

David: Lately, I don’t even …

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