UFC on FOX 21: Condit vs. Maia staff picks and predictions

The Bloody Elbow staff has made its picks for tomorrow night’s UFC on FOX event in Vancouver. Most of us are going with Carlos Condit to beat Demian Maia in the main event, although I’d love to know how many would’ve picked Maia had this been 3 rounds instead of 5. There’s a similar split of people picking Anthony Pettis over Charles Oliveira, although yours truly has got Oliveira for the upset. Phil Mackenzie is picking Sam Alvey over Kevin Casey, which is only significant in that his analysis of it is so beautiful.

Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Victor Rodriguez entered all of his predictions on Monday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

Note 2: Adam Hunter vs. Ryan Janes is now scrapped after Hunter was flagged by USADA, so that’s been removed from this predictions piece.

Carlos Condit vs. Demian Maia

Mookie Alexander: Maia’s gotta win this within two rounds. I’d be very surprised if his cardio held up against someone like Condit for up to 25 minutes. I can’t stress enough how much this being 5 rounds instead of 3 benefits Carlos. Chances are we’ll see Maia take Condit down straight away and do his work on the mat. Condit is active off of his back and is a lot more difficult to just hold down than people think. If Condit can weather the storm and avoid getting submitted over the first 10-12 minutes, then stuff Maia’s takedowns (or at least make him work for it), it’ll be all Condit on the feet. My mind says pick Maia by submission but dammit I can’t do it. Heart is going with Carlos Condit by TKO, round 4.

Eddie Mercado: I am such a fan of both guys yet for polar opposite reasons. I have always enjoyed how Condit is well rounded with cardio for days and has been one of those guys who actively works off of his back, be it to stand back up or look for a sub. Maia on the other hand is the personification of street Jiu-Jitsu. His top control is second to none and his FIQ, at least on the ground, is through the frickin’ roof. Maia’s drop to welterweight has proved to be a wise move as Maia has yet to taste defeat in the division. I can see this fight playing out a number of different ways but this will be the time that Condit’s squirmy-ness off his back will be his downfall. Demian Maia by Submission, Round 1.

Zane Simon: I should pick Maia. Condit is not only plagued by terrible takedown defense, but he’s aggressive enough on the mats that he’s very likely to expose himself to a submission. When guys try to really fight Maia’s grappling, that’s when he tends to sink something in. It’s when guys just try and survive and let him have position that he rides out rounds and becomes a grinder. But, I just can’t get that feeling that Maia’s actual fight finishing threat is just not consistent enough, and in a five round fight sooner or later this will be about cardio. And if it becomes a battle of cardio, that’s a battle that Condit will win. Eventually, Condit either gets a knockout, or he’s very likely to lose, no real other options. But as foolish as it feels, I’ll pick the knockout. Carlos Condit via TKO, Round 3.

Jed Meshew: Maia’s ground game is other worldly but let’s not act like he is an anthropomorphic bolt of lightning that you can’t touch without dying. Ryan LaFlare went 5 rounds with him. Maia will have success early and then Carlos Condit, the true welterweight champion (fight me), will show why he doesn’t lose 5 round fights. Condit, TKO, round 4.

Dayne Fox: I really want to pick Maia here as I’ve been a mark for him for as long as I can remember. The reason I can’t is Condit has some of the best cardio in the sport and isn’t easy to submit. The last time he was submitted? Over 10 years ago. I don’t think Maia has the gas tank to pull out a five round decision over Condit. Remember how bad he faded against Ryan LaFlare in round five? Condit would finish Maia if he ends up that gassed again. If it was three rounds that would be different. But it ain’t. Condit via TKO of RD4

Staff picking Condit: Mookie, Stephie, Phil, Zane, Fraser, Condit, Lewis, Dayne, TimStaff picking Maia: Nick, Eddie, Bissell

Anthony Pettis vs. Charles Oliveira

Mookie Alexander: I suppose Pettis is supposed to win this, right? Big advantage with his range striking just on power alone, which poses huge problems for someone as iffy as Oliveira when it comes to getting hit flush. That said, Oliveira has made major strides since his early days when it looked like he was going to be a bit of a busted prospect. His takedowns are underrated and while Pettis has a dangerous submission game, I think Oliveira would win the grappling exchanges. This really comes down to Pettis’ mindset. He’s more or less been found out as a flashy but very fundamentally flawed striker. Is Oliveira the guy to exploit Pettis’ fundamental flaws? Maybe? Oliveira makes this a clinch battle and outmuscles Pettis on the ground to get the win. Charles Oliveira by unanimous decision.

Victor Rodriguez: From being the future of lightweight to stacking up losses, expanding to Jackson’s and now dropping to featherweight – I struggle to think what Pettis can do differently in a lower weight class? He still suffers from the same deficiencies as a fighter and unless he’s cleaned up some habits and developed new ones, can still be figured out and beaten. Oliveira is a tremendous talent, but he may be playing catch-up here with Pettis’ dynamic striking. Seeing as both of them rely on distance striking, I don’t see Charles mugging Anthony with infighting to make it dirty, nor do I see him dealing well with Pettis’ level changes and attacks to the body. Pettis should be able to pick him apart at a distance with Oliveira catching him with some good occasional offense. Anthony Pettis by decision.

EDDIE: I still have a box of Wheaties with Anthony Pettis on the cover, maybe because I just don’t care for that particular brand of cereal too much, but at the time Pettis was the all the rage. Showtime kicks and slick submissions! Fast forward a few years and wowsers, has the landscape of modern MMA changed. From the sale of the UFC to the banning of intravenous rehydration. From Reebok deals to USADA sessions. Anthony Pettis has now dropped three straight bouts and I can’t help but wonder… wtf happened? Granted those losses came to top flight competition in Barboza, Alvarez, and RDA but a fourth consecutive loss could spell the UFC exit for the Roufusport product. Now with that being said, Pettis is hella-durable. Of his five losses, none have been by way of finish. I cannot say the same for his opponent Charles Oliveira, who out of his five losses has been finished four times. Honestly, I have never picked against Anthony Pettis and am not going to start with Charles Oliveira. Anthony Pettis by TKO (Injury), Round 1.

Zane Simon: If Pettis has gotten in his own head, if he doesn’t come in with the right approach, he could lose. Oliveira is a fantastic action fighter and a brutally tricky grappler. If Pettis lets himself get drawn into a grappling battle, he could get subbed. But, Oliveira is also something of a flat footed plodder when it comes to his range striking and footwork. He’s just not dynamic enough standing to chase Pettis down and really control him like he’d need to. Add in that he approaches in straight lines with his head on line and that feels like a recipe for Anthony Pettis’ success. Anthony Pettis via KO, Round 1.

Jed: Anthony Pettis got jobbed to lose to the current lightweight champion. His other losses are to RDA, a top 10 lightweight ever and bad style matchup, and Edson Barboza who is the worst style matchup for him. Pretty Tony Pettis can still do the damn thing better than most. Pettis, KO, round 2.

Dayne Fox: Oliveira has never done well against skilled strikers. Donald Cerrone and Cub Swanson disposed of him easily, though that was a long time ago. I think he has improved and he did beat Jeremy Stephens… but are you really going to compare Anthony Pettis to …

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