Premier League Relying on Inexperience in Fight to Retain Champions League Spots

Lazio manager Edoardo Reja might have hoped his team had learned from their mistake.

Twelve months earlier, they’d blown their chance of making the Champions League with a limp finish to the 2010-11 Serie A season, losing 2-1 to Udinese, who finished fourth and took their place by virtue of their head-to-head record.

A year later, almost to the day, it was the same story; Reja’s side were beaten in Udine to throw away their place with the finish line in sight. For the manager it was too much to stomach, and four days after the season’s end, he resigned.

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That was in 2012, the year Italy relinquished one of its coveted Champions League places to Germany’s Bundesliga.

Lazio had finished fourth in Serie A, which, for the previous nine seasons, would have been sufficient to make the cut. But even though both AC Milan and Inter Milan had won the Champions League between 2006 and 2011, the unspectacular but consistent performances of German clubs in the latter rounds of the UEFA Cup/Europa League and Champions League saw the Bundesliga slowly tot up enough points in the coefficient rankings to oust the Italians.

The trickle-down effect, predictably, brought Reja to the end of his wick, with the rest of Serie A surely feeling like following.

Four years later, the clubs of Serie A are still looking to win back that Champions League berth. They are fourth in the UEFA rankings, one place outside the top bracket, but with third-place England firmly in their sights, there is the scent of blood in Italian nostrils. And the hunt is on for a prize which could be worth up to £80 million a season for the winner.

As this season’s qualification play-offs for both competitions come to an end, England’s coefficient lead over Italy is a little over two points. Allocation is straightforward; two points for each win and one for a draw from the group stage onward (halved for the qualifiers), with bonus points awarded upon qualification for the groups and for each round thereafter.

The total for each country is divided by the number of European entrants that year, meaning clubs don’t necessarily benefit by having more places, but the stronger nations suffer relative to each other if their clubs are knocked out in qualifying.

It’s a fiddly system, but ultimately it’s a simple one, which—over five seasons—gives a pretty solid picture of what clubs have been doing in Europe and awards lucrative places accordingly.

Five teams will seal their place in Thursday’s #UCLdraw tonight…Who are you backing? …

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