Hill brings elite performance into delayed Dodgers debut

If all goes according to plan, Rich Hill is expected to finally make his Dodgers debut on Wednesday against the Giants, and Los Angeles fans might be excused for wondering just what the hype is all about. After all, the 36-year-old Hill is yet another injury-prone pitcher on a roster full of them, and what is apparently the worst blister in baseball history has prevented him from appearing for the Dodgers despite the fact that it’s been nearly a month since the team surrendered three well-regarded pitching prospects in Grant Holmes, Jharel Cotton and Frankie Montas in order to acquire Hill and Josh Reddick.  

Considering Hill’s well-documented injury history, and that last August his career was in such a state that he was merely signing a Minor League deal with Boston’s Triple-A Pawtucket affiliate after pitching for the independent league Long Island Ducks, what is it about him that makes him worth all this trouble? Let’s try to answer that question.

First things first: During the rare occasions where Hill is able to take the mound, he’s become shockingly elite at preventing offensive production. Let’s show that in the simplest way possible, by looking at lowest ERA of the pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings since Sept. 1, 2015, just before Hill made his return to the Majors with the Red Sox.

Lowest ERA since Sept. 1, 2015 (minimum 100 innings) 1. Clayton Kershaw, 1.76 2. Hill, 2.06 3. Jake Arrieta, 2.21 4. Kyle Hendricks, 2.32 5. Madison Bumgarner, 2.35

So there’s that. Noah Syndergaard and Jon Lester are among the next few names on that list, and while it’s obvious that 100 innings isn’t the hugest sample size in the world, it’s just as obvious that we’re looking at some extremely impressive names here, and you can’t fake that kind of performance. In 105 innings since Hill returned to the big leagues with Boston last year, he’s collected 126 strikeouts and prevented runs from scoring along with the best in the game.

On to the next obvious question: How? It’s not velocity, because Hill’s fastball averages just over 91 mph, which isn’t terribly different from what he’s always had. It basically comes down to this …

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