UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 staff picks and predictions for main card

Here we are. UFC 202 is nearly upon us. Bloody Elbow’s staff has made its predictions for the entire card, but because this is a mega event, we’ve divided the predictions into two posts. You can read our preliminary card picks here. As for the PPV main card, the majority of the BE team is siding with Nate Diaz to make it 2-for-2 against Conor McGregor. Nick Baldwin, Victor Rodriguez, Eddie Mercado, and Lewis McKeever have got Conor evening the score with Nate. The co-main event has a similar split of people picking Anthony Johnson over Glover Teixeira. Phil Mackenzie, Lewis, Jed Meshew, and Tim Bissell are backing Teixeira to get the victory.

Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Monday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

Nate Diaz vs. Conor McGregor

Anton Tabuena: It’s weird how everyone seems to be talking about how much McGregor improved, when it’s more likely that Diaz with a legit camp would be the one with major changes to his output. I expect Conor to have a significantly better game plan, but how much improvements can he actually make skill-wise in that short amount of time? He’s doing bike trails, hired a BJJ coach and a tall boxer. That can help him be more accustomed to what Diaz brings to the table, but in the end, it won’t make him have better cardio, better boxing, or better BJJ than Nate. With his stance, Diaz normally has trouble from takedowns and Thai kicks, but Conor doesn’t really utilize either well and prefers side kicks and oblique kicks. He can use distance and his speed advantage to slowly try and pick him apart, but I doubt he can maintain that for 25 mins. He will probably go back to what he’s used to, and they will have stretches where they’re trading in boxing range. Conor obviously has a chance, but I believe Diaz should be the considerable favorite here. Nate Diaz by late submission.

Mookie Alexander: I’m going back and forth on this too much so I’ll make it short. It’s really not some inconceivable thought that McGregor will effectively work past Diaz’s jab and be more economic with his strike selection — more leg kicks and fewer spinning high kicks — and even knock Diaz out. Don’t laugh it off, you’ve seen enough stunning MMA results this year that a Diaz getting KO’d is somehow not in the cards. That said, as much as I really don’t like basing my picks based on mental warfare, I do not trust Conor McGregor to not engage in a pure firefight with Nate Diaz and have it backfire. This will be another terrific fight, but I like Diaz to hurt McGregor again with his boxing and this time jump on a guillotine for the win. For only the 2nd time ever, I’m picking against Conor McGregor, so you McGregor marks better not bombard my Twitter account and call me anti-Conor. Nate Diaz by submission, round 4.

Victor Rodriguez: Yeesh. The first fight saw some great back and forth action where Diaz punished McGregor for not respecting his range and power, thinking he could simply outbox Nate. Problem is, it’s really hard for me to see the fight going the same way. See – historically, anyone that tries to outbox a Diaz brother eats it. Michael Johnson? Check. Takanori Gomi? Check. Donald Cerrone? Double check. Gray Maynard? For the love of everything holy, never again. Yet for all their faults, Kavanagh and McGregor could very well learn to avoid that deadly jab and the ensuing setups, learn to fluster Nate and actually put the pressure on him as needed to get the win. Nate’s gotten a lot better at checking leg kicks, though. Not only that, but he may not be much of a wrestler, but can work takedowns of caught kicks and work his superior grappling game. Still can’t see myself going against a focused McGregor, because he’s defied so many crazy expectations up until now. I’ll probably hate myself for this, but let it roll. Conor McGregor by TKO, round 4.

Fraser Coffeen: I picked McGregor over Jose Aldo based purely on one factor: Conor’s confidence. He was on a roll and believed in himself to this insane degree, and he made it happen. It helped that it was a stylistically favorable match-up – not a bigger opponent, not a longer opponent, and not an opponent who would exploit what I think we can now fairly say is a weakness in Conor’s submission defense game. All of those pluses are out the window against Diaz, but the biggest issue for Conor here is that confidence. He can talk all he wants about his preparation, but it all feels like bluster to me. He’s been all over the map since the loss, and I don’t see him righting the ship. He flew too close to the sun, and this is the result. Nate Diaz by submission, round 1

Eddie Mercado: This is such a close fight. So many factors at play here. Full training camps and $300k training camps. Plus this a rematch of a very close fight. Will Nate Diaz be even better? I doubt it. I mean he looked how Nate always looks when he fought Conor at UFC 196 so what exactly are we supposed to see different from Diaz? He’s pretty much a finished product. He’s damn good, but also as good as he is going to get. Nate Diaz might be getting a bit too much credit for his boxing abilities. Don’t get me wrong, Nate is a superb scrapper but the truth is, there are ever present lapses in defense when one allows Nate to open up. The questions here for me are has Conor learned from his mistakes and will those potential learned lessons even matter? Well maybe… If Conor cuts out the ‘spinning shit’ and has a more patient showing then I can see him find the necessary openings to hurt Diaz and put him away. Conor McGregor by TKO, Round 2.

Lewis McKeever: I have no idea who’s winning this one, but I think it’s going to be a great fight. I think the key for McGregor is to use feints and catch Diaz with flush counters, similar to how he opened up round 2. But Diaz could easily overwhelm him like he did in the first fight. If you were to put a gun to my head, I’d pick McGregor via decision. Conor McGregor via decision.

Stephie Haynes: Conor is just not built for welterweight. That’s the biggest thing to note here. He’s got great, unorthodox striking, Excellent countering, and he uses angles and explosion so well. His footwork is beautiful, but his head movement needs more work, as Nate was able to ring his bell a good bit in their first outing. His ground game and defensive skills are good, but against Nate Diaz…well, see fight number one.

While conditioning was a real factor in his loss the first time, I don’t think it will be in this one. He’s a very intelligent fighter looking to get retribution, and let’s not forget, he’ll have a full fight camp targeted exclusively for Diaz. I think we’ll see a very different game plan from …

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