UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 staff picks and predictions for preliminary card

The Bloody Elbow staff has made its predictions for UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2. As you can gather, this is a pretty big pay-per-view event, so big that we’ve had to split the predictions posts into preliminary card and main card. Here are the preliminary card predictions, which sees us unanimously pick Cody Garbrandt over Takeya Mizugaki, while Lorenz Larkin vs. Neil Magny is considerably more divided.

Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Monday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

Cody Garbrandt vs. Takeya Mizugaki

Anton Tabuena: Can I brag a bit and say that I was the first and only one here to pick Garbrandt to beat Almeida? I’ve always been high on his MMA boxing, and I think that’s what is going to lead him to victory here again. I believe a grinding vet like Mizugaki is the perfect test for Cody at this stage of his career, but I think he will pass with flying colors. Cody Garbrandt by TKO.

Mookie Alexander: I’d talk shit about Anton’s bragging over one of the rare correct fight predictions he has, but basically once the Cavs beat the Warriors he can now hold all of my “Eastern Conference NBA is a joke” tweets over my head for all eternity. It was worth it to see LeBron get a 3rd ring. Anyway, that aside, Mizugaki is good everywhere and not great at any one thing. He’s hard to knockdown, let alone knockout, but Garbrandt seems to be a real top talent as a striker, and I’m going with the prospect over the veteran. Cody Garbrandt by TKO, round 2.

Victor Rodriguez: I seriously doubted Garbrandt last time around, but won’t make that mistake again. Cody not only hits hard, but is smart about using his range and timing his shots. Mizugaki can be put out, and despite his grappling may lack the physicality to take Cody down and break him down.

Fraser Coffeen: Mizugaki is amazing – he’s been THE premier bantamweight gatekeeper since his very first fight on American soil, and literally for the entire time the UFC division has even existed. Seven years of top level gatekeeping may not make you a champion, but it’s impressive. Garbrandt? He’s the exact kind of guy that gets past the gate. Cody Garbrandt, KO, round 1

Phil Mackenzie: I’ve said this elsewhere, but Mizugaki has not traditionally struggled with pure boxers much. Instead he’s a bit like a Diaz brother with the dials turned down – physically underwhelming-looking, a “soft” jab and hook, pace, double underhooks, body shots etc – and it’s normally been kicking and wrestling which has troubled him. Garbrandt is as pure a boxer as you get, but Mizu has a boggling amount of experience hanging out in the pocket, and I can probably think of at least one fight where a tatted up explosive puncher got drawn into draining exchanges with a canny veteran. I’m not going to pick Mizugaki, obviously, but Garbrandt could easily find himself in trouble if he just goes in there trying to take Mizugaki’s head off and can’t. Cody Garbrandt by TKO, round 1.

Eddie Mercado: Attention shoppers! Will Cody G. please report to the top 5; your party is waiting. Cody Garbrandt by statement, Round 1.

Jed Meshew: Garbrandt should win this but Mizugaki has the tricky, veteran game to make him work for it. I have real concerns about Garbrandt’s ability to develop further at TAM but he shouldn’t need to improve to pick up the win here. Garbrandt by KO, round 1.

Staff picking Garbrandt: Nick, Victor, Anton, Fraser, Phil, Bissell, Eddie, Tim, Stephie, Dayne, JedStaff picking Mizugaki:

Raquel Pennington vs. Elizabeth Phillips

Mookie Alexander: I don’t really get the matchmaking here. Phillips is a capable fighter but she also tired badly against Jessamyn Duke and dropped the final round. Pennington is physically stronger, and while her style of fighting has never really led to dominant performances, she’s got the better striking and can wear Phillips out in the clinch. I think we see a breakout performance from Rocky. Raquel Pennington by unanimous decision.

Victor: Hope you like gritty fights. Phillips keeps her striking functional to work into takedowns in most of her wins, but Pennington’s got country strength and won’t be taken down easily. Rocky can hurt Phillips in what I expect to be a wild slugfest punctuated by hugging. Raquel Pennington via decision.

Fraser: A lot of WMMA fights are still dictated by sheer physicality, and by that metric, this one’s an easy pick. Raquel Pennington, dec

Phil Mackenzie: I really like Pennington. She just has a high-percentage, reliable game which works well against a variety of skillsets, and that is just not common at all at this weight class. Her problem is that she isn’t really that dynamic, but she’s pretty good at picking up on people who duck into things with front headlock and choke subs, and she should be the more powerful and …

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