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UFC 202 Statistical Matchup Analysis: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
- Updated: August 19, 2016
The Ultimate Fighting Championship’s most marketable rivalry will finally get its second breath. After a superlative 2015 campaign, the outspoken Conor McGregor entered his March showdown with Nate Diaz with an aura of destiny. At that point, McGregor was undefeated in the UFC and had not tasted defeat since an early career submission loss in 2010. After the Irishman tapped to a rear-naked choke from Diaz, the rematch was booked for UFC 200, but a maelstrom of drama surrounding press obligations and faux-retirement unfolded, pushing it back until now. This will be McGregor’s second fight above 145 pounds and his second fight of 2016. On the other side of cage at UFC 202 on Saturday in Las Vegas will be longtime MMA antihero and cult favorite Diaz, who notched the most important win of his career when he throttled McGregor at UFC 196. Since then, he has become a bona fide star in the sport. The winner of “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 5 has nearly a decade of UFC fights under his belt, as well as stints in World Extreme Cagefighting and a one-off Strikeforce bout, making him a true veteran of the sport. Diaz is 3-3 in the UFC fighting above lightweight, and this will be his second fight of the year. There are a lot of narrative and stylistic threads running through this fight, so let us see what the Tale of the Tape says: The anthropometric side of things favors Diaz, who is the larger, rangier fighter. Diaz also is more experienced and more comfortable at welterweight, whereas McGregor’s lone trip above featherweight ended with him tapping. The only other time McGregor has fought a taller opponent was his 2013 win against Max Holloway, and he has never fought anyone with a longer reach than Diaz. The big difference between this fight and the first match is how both men are prepared this time around. In the first bout, McGregor was training for a completely different opponent and was readying himself for a shot at another title, which would have been an unprecedented feat had he won. When slated opponent Rafael dos Anjos pulled out with an injury, Diaz filled the void with 10 days’ notice. The pendulum swings both ways here. On the one hand, Diaz was clearly at a disadvantage then because he was not in any kind of fight camp, while McGregor was actively training. At the same time, that kind of last-second changeup could have been psychologically deflating for McGregor, especially since it was not for a belt and was contested at a higher weight class than he had been preparing for. Whether or not the short notice affected one man more than the other does not matter; this time, both of them have had full camps that have been specifically tailored for each other, and thus the nature of the fight is different. It will be interesting to see who will benefit more, though it is worth noting that McGregor has the more obvious adjustments to make since he lost last time. Barring any strategy that drastically deviates from the last fight, most of the rematch will again take place on the feet. Let us see …
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