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Beastly battle in AL East tough to top
- Updated: August 19, 2016
It’s time to check in on the division standings — meaning, where the division races stand in relation to each other.
We’ll have plenty of time to sort through the migraine-inducing math that will accompany the Wild Card craziness. For now, here’s a ranking of the six division races, in order of intrigue.
6. NL East Nationals (71-49) — Marlins (62-59) 9.5 GB Mets (60-61) 11.5 GB
As I write this, FanGraphs is giving the Nationals a 99.4 percent chance of winning the East. The Mets’ malaise is very real, as is the difficulty faced by a Marlins team that just lost Giancarlo Stanton from a lineup that already had the third-worst home-run rate in the league.
The Nats have had injury issues of their own, of course, but they’ve maintained at least a three-game cushion since late June, and Bryce Harper has shown some serious signs of life since returning from neck trouble. The Nats aren’t a perfect team, but their rotation is every bit as good or better than that of the Mets and it’s just hard to imagine them completely coughing up this edge, especially with only 19 games left against teams with winning records.
5. NL Central Cubs (77-43) — Cardinals (64-56) 13 GB Pirates (62-56) 14 GB
FanGraphs is giving the Cubs a 99.8 percent chance of nailing down their first Central title since 2008. That last 0.2 percent is either some kind of rounding error or the statistical probability of the black cat from Shea Stadium coming back to life.
But I’ll put the Central ahead of the East if only because of the stronger possibility it yields three postseason teams — for the second straight season, no less. The Cardinals and Pirates both have a chance to join a select group. Only seven previous teams in the Wild Card era — the 1998 Red Sox and Cubs, the 2001 A’s, the ’03 Marlins, the ’04 and ’05 Astros and the ’14 A’s — finished with a double-digit deficit in their divisions and still made it to October. The ’03 Marlins and ’05 Astros went on to win the pennant, and the Marlins won it all, so keep hope alive, Pittsburgh and St. Louis!
4. AL Central Indians (69-50) — Tigers (64-57) 6 GB Royals (61-60) 9 GB
Don’t put it past the …
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