Swimming’s Swingometer: Where the United States Won Rio 2016 & Australia Lost It

Australia’s swimming team visited Christ The Redeemer in Rio today. Intentional or not, how very fitting. There may be a sense of the cathartic up there on the angel’s shoulder overlooking the stunning setting that is Rio de Janeiro, Sugarloaf and sea; up there at the foot of the iconic statue of The Dove, arms outstretched like wings, hands open as if to say:

The Lord is near to the brokenhearted and saves the crushed in spirit – Psalm 34:18

He heals the brokenhearted and binds up their wounds – Psalm 147:3

Who can tell where Cate and Bronte Campbell, where Cameron McEvoy, where Emily Seebohm and a little of Mitch Larkin, too, will find solace in the days and weeks and months and even years ahead, the events of Rio so wrought with the sting of a target so widely missed that the arrow feels like it pierced eah and every heart among those still struggling to fathom how it could all have gone so very wrong.

Perhaps Matthew 5:1-4 and Matthew 11:28-30 will help, respectively:

Seeing the crowds, he went up on the mountain, and when he sat down, his disciples came to him. And he opened his mouth and taught them, saying: “Blessed are the poor in spirit, for theirs is the kingdom of heaven. “Blessed are those who mourn, for they shall be comforted.

Come to me, all who labor and are heavy laden, and I will give you rest. Take my yoke upon you, and learn from me, for I am gentle and lowly in heart, and you will find rest for your souls. For my yoke is easy, and my burden is light.”

Calls for head coach Jacco Verhaeren, performance manager Wayne Lomas and CEO of Swimming Australia, Mark Anderson, are getting louder and they carry the weight of such names as Bill Sweetenham and hefty media commentators in the mix. Sweetenham decsribed the heart of Australia’s problem as this:

“They sold the fur before they shot the bear”.

Cameron McEvoy by Patrick B. Kraemer

Sweetenham calls for Australia to avoid making the same London 2012 mistakes again and beating up on the athletes. He says: “It is a leadership issue. John Bertram (Swimming Australia president), Mark Anderson (CEO) were talking 18 months ago about ’10 gold medals and beating America’. Now that is really stupid.”

On the issue of stage fright, Sweetenham adds: “Jacco came out and said it was nerves. McEvoy. Nerves? That’s a load of rubbish. He’s a seasoned, very seasoned athlete. He’s embarrassed now, he’s humiliated and Richard Scarce, his coach, has got to try and rebuild him. But it’s a missed opportunity. I’m sure that Magnussen was destroyed after London 2012 … the athletes are not being provided with accurate leadership and good systematic development at the Olympic podium.”

Citing what the USA get right and the role of Jack Roach and others leaders in the United States campaign for Rio, Sweetenham speaks those words to Sydney’s 2GB radio lead Alan Jones, who nailed the tone Down Under when – whether any of us agree on what caused it and who is to blame and what may now be done about it – he said:

“The coach’s job is to take talent to the top of the mountain. Not to try to try to climb every mountain but certaunly the Olympic mountain. Our problem is that there are now others on the summit looking back at others from the place where we expected to be. And the coach has to take responsibility for the fact that others have got to the mountain before us. Now Mr. Well-Paid Verhaeren you’re the head coach: give the rthetoric a miss. This bloke is on a holiday from reality. Bill Sweetenham’s not and he’s on the line …”

Verhaeren, mentor to Pieter van den Hoogenband and others in his time at the helm in Holland, has come in for some serious stick. The Jones talks to Sweetenham missive (5-minute lead in of editorial comment) and following interview was 12 minutes long and is worth every second of a listen. You will find the transcript and the link to the audio at the foot of this article.

Among the many voices weighing in as Australia faces up to what went wrong is that of performance guru Wayne Goldsmith, who had this to say on post-Olympic reviews (of which he’s done several across a number of sports: “… want to know how to tell that your sport is not serious about getting better? Reviews can be very effective – if the focus is on improvement and not just butt-kicking (although butts do need to be kicked) – but time and time again I see sports making the same mistakes when it comes to performance reviews.”

Before we return to the Goldsmith’s explanations and other views on the sinking of Aussie swim hopes in Rio, here is a reminder of that swimming Swingometer and how the USA stepped up and Australia (and most of the rest of the world) stepped down:

Coming into the Olympic Games, Australia had 10 shots at gold, 15 medals in all looked a cert and 20 a great Games. Yes, there was Katie Ledecky and other others such ‘certs’ but Australia has some of those itself. The battle ground would be in key marginals that could go either way even in the virtual world of crystal balling.

Katie Ledecky of the USA – by Patrick B. Kraemer

One of our previews noted the following – The Swingometer: The backstroke events in Rio are on the frontline of the battle between the United States and Australia when it comes to which nation can claim the lion’s share of gold by the close of eight days of racing. Other nations will have a say, too, of course but between the aquatic superpowers, the USA No 1 by some way in many a season, must hit most of its targets in Rio, Australia must hit just about all its targets to emerge with the biggest pile of gold. That the Dolphins even have a chance speaks volumes for the strength of swimming Down Under. The swingometer will show the measure of events that go one way or the other. The London 2012 tally was 16 to 1 in favour of the USA. Things promise to be much close this time.

Indeed they did but although Australia finished second on the medals table as the only nation beyond United States that managed to amass a double digit collection.

In the midst of that result, there were towering title wins for Mack Horton, Kyle Chalmers and the women’s 4x100m freestyle, the latter producing a world record at the start of the meet. At the end of the first day, it looked very much like Game On in terms of taking the fight to the USA.

It all proved a false dawn and while Australia had so much more to celebrate than all other nations barring the USA in pure medal-count terms, the targets missed stand out for the wreckage of promises they represent.

Before we consider what it all means for Australia, here is how the swimming swimgometer swung in favour of the USA and against the Dolphins:

The Swingometer – Day By Day in Rio

Day 1

Mack Horton of Australia – by Patrick B. Kraemer

Men’s 400m medley: Chase Kalisz (USA) produces the swim of his life for silver behind another who does the same, Kosuke Hagino, with Japan Daiya Seto third.

Men’s 400m freestyle: Mack Horton makes it Sun down for a second time, the courage of his words married with conviction and a golden delivery. Sun gets silver and Gabriele Detti (ITA) the first of his two bronzes, Conor Dwyer takes silver, the USA on target.

Women’s 400m medley: the transformation is complete as 27-year-old Katinka Hosszu (HUN) breaks the mould, takes gold in a world record that takes her off the chart of expectation for the swimmer just three seasons earlier. Maya Dirado (USA) and Mireia Belmonte (ESP) complete the podium.

Women’s 4x100m freestyle: Australia’s women deliver in fine style: a world record ahead of the USA and Canada. In a dominant 3:30.65, Emma McKeon, Brittany Elmslie, Bronte and Cate Campbell nailed it, with Bronte on 52.15 and Cate on 51.97. Simone Manuel got the USA of in 53.36 but would surely need much more to medal in the solo 100m., while splits of 52.6 and 52.7 from Katie Ledecky added to a picture of runes were falling into place as expected: Campbells in sizzling form, Ledecky, too.

USA Vs AUS – medals

Form guide: USA – 4; AUS – 1 Rio Result: USA – 4; AUS – 1

Day 2

Women’s 100m Butterfly: Sarah Sjostrom becomes Sweden’s first Olympic swim champions among women – and does so in world-record time. Upset follows: Penny Oleksiak, 16, grabs silver but there would be even greater things to come; and defending champion Dana Vollmer, comeback mum, gets back on the podium. Kelsi Worrell had placed the USA on the pre-Games podium forecast but it was Viollmer who delivered, Oleksiak leap-frogging five for her medal.

Men’s 100m Breaststroke: Adam Peaty produces what remained the points performance swim of the eight days in Rio, 57.13. Staggering – a fine start for GBR. Cameron Van der Burgh (RSA) returns to the podium four years after his win, with Cody Miller, not Kevin Cordes, producing the medal USA had on its pre-Games form.

Women’s 400m Freestyle: Katie Ledecky – 5th world record of the meet and her first, 3:56. Stunning. The firtst of four gold medals in the bag. Jazz Carlin steps up for GBR, the first of her two silvers; and Leah Smith keeps the USA on par with bronze, every target, if not the colour then the medal, nailed so far.

Adam Peaty – by Patrick B. Kraemer

Men’s 4x100m freestyle: USA takes back the prize from France, with Australia redeemed with bronze. Nathan Adrian – 46.97; Cameron McEvoy – 47.00. Game on for the solo, perhaps. Michael Phelps, 47.1; Ryan Held 47.7; Caeleb Dressel 48.1 leading. Australia not quite so sharp – James Roberts 48.8; James Magnussen, 48.1, but Kyle Chalmers looking good at 47.3.

USA Vs AUS – medals

Form guide: USA – 5; AUS – 1 Rio Result: USA – 5; AUS – 1

Total after 2 days:

Form guide: USA – 9; AUS – 2 Rio Result: USA – 9; AUS – 2

Day 3

Men’s 200m Freestyle: Behind the asterisk from China, Chad Le Clos (RSA) and courage; then Conor Dwyer (USA) and World champion James Guy (GBR), the third man with a clean record home.

Women’s 100m Backstroke: here is where the boat starts to riock. Katinka Hosszu (HUN), Kathleen Baker (USA) and Kylie Masse (CAN) sharing bronze with Fu Yuanhui (CHN). In seventh and eighth, the top two from world titles last year, Emily Seebohm and Madison Wilson. If the semis had hinted at a problem, then the final delivered the first serious shockwave of doubt for Australians. Yes, Hosszu stepped up to a place she could never had possibly dreamed about aged 24 but in Seebohm Australia had an athlete who could almost get under 59 in her sleep, with a record 30 such swims in her career and a best of 58.23. She was a second away from best – an ocean. Baker’s silver moves her up from pre-Games No7 and the USA into a place beyond the form guide as the first athlete to place real meet ahead of virtual one.

Men’s 100m Backstroke: Seebohm’s partner Mitch Larkin is the world champion, double world champion at that. He’s not way out, as the women were, but no medal, while the USA nail two, split by China’s Xu Jiayu, Ryan Murphy the champion, David Plummer taking bronze. The Australian wheels had started to come off the bus.

Lillian King – by Patrick B. Kraemer

Women’s 100m Breaststroke: Lilly King wags her finger back at Yuliya Efimova* and puts an athlete who simply does not get it back in her box. The bronze goes to the USA, too, Katie Meili the second swimmer from her team to take real ahead of virtual. The meet shifts, three days in and the dynamics are clear: momentum for the USA, paralysis for Australia is they let the rot of setback set in.

USA Vs AUS – medals

Form guide: USA – 4; AUS – 3 Rio Result: USA – 6; AUS – 0

Total after 3 days:

Form guide: USA – 13; AUS – 5 Rio Result: USA – 15; AUS – 2

Day 4

Women’s 200m Freestyle: Ledecky nails it once more, with Sjostromn providing a sharp blade of challenge, Emma McKeon taking bronze to become the first Australian to place real meet ahead of virtual – but her gain is catch-up because of the loses the day before.

Men’s 200m Butterfly: Redemption and recovery of lost gold for Michael Phelps ahead of Masato Sakai (JPN) and Tamas Kenderesi (HUN). If the USA has those on their debut stepping up to get the team ahead of virtual, then Phelps is prime among the examples of experience keeping its hand ahead yet.

Women’s 200m medley: Hosszu No 3 but closer than she would have imagined possible – another metres and Siobhan-Marie O’Connor (GBR) would have had her. Fun and games ahead on that one. And then Maya Dirado, medal No 2 and another USA target hit. So far the USA has not missed a single beat – and the day would end that way.

Michael Phelps of USA – by Patrick B. Kraemer

Men’s 4x200m Freestyle: USA ahead of terrific efforts, too, for world champions Great Britain and then Japan, Australia missing out where the absence of Cameron McEvoy, were her to have produced his best form, was decisive to Australia missing the podium.

USA Vs AUS – medals

Form guide: USA – 4; AUS – 1 Rio Result: USA – 4; AUS – 2

Total after 4 days:

Form guide: USA – 17; AUS – 6 Rio Result: USA – 19; AUS – 4

Day 5

Men’s 200m Breaststroke: Dimitry Balandin makes history as the first Kazhakstan swimmer to take Olympic gold. Josh Prenot keeps the USA on song with silver, the bronze to Anton Chupkov (RUS). This is the first knock for the United States, the pore-Games form guide granting a second medal but Kevin Cordes locked out.

Women’s 200m butterfly: Mireia Belmonte becomes the first Spanish woman ever to claim Olympic gold in the pool. Madeline Groves swims a fantastic race alongside Belmonte and its’s silver by a slither. The day feels better for the Dolphins, Natsumi Hoshi taking bronze four years on from bronze. Here comes one of the big targets:

Men’s 100m Freestyle: Australia celebrates – and weeps. Kyle Chalmers – the understudy takes it. Stunner – up from rank No8 for the crown – at 18. Cracker. As is silver: Pieter Timmers – Belgium. Take that, crystal ball. Defender Nathan Adrian gets bronze. And then someway back, hearts sinking with the lines prepared, polished but never now to be written: Cameron McEvoy, 47.04 – now 48.2. Impossible. A touch down from that sizzling best, he was washed by the wave of circumstance and the bulk about him. The Australians took a gold each post-fight: Chalmers waited for McEvoy to climb out, had a small word and a hug for his mate, who raised the boy’s arm, pointed up at teammates in the stand as if to say “honour him – what a swim!” just at a moment when he could have been forgiven for disappearing down a black hole of emotion. Stirring stuff and part of the evidence that backs up the views that nerves and athlete were less of a problem that other issues Australia will need to get to grips with if it is to salvage the gold in one of the finest teams it has ever had going into a Games (but not out of one).

Kyle Chalmers of Australia – by Patrick B. Kraemer

Women’s 4x200m Freestyle: USA, AUS, CAN. To form, the top 2, Canada stepping up and enjoying its finest Olympic meet for quote some time.

USA Vs AUS – …

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