Diggin’ Deep on UFC 202: Diaz vs McGregor 2 FS1 prelims preview

Is it just me, or has Cody Garbrandt been in more headlines the last week than anyone else other than headliners Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz? The youngster continues to voice his opinion that he is the best in the world and whether you believe him or not, he’s getting the attention that type comes with backing it up. I’m not saying he’s going to take the belt – not yet at least – but he has done what he is supposed to do thus far in his career which allows him to talk like that. Many feel he is getting a step back in competition going from Thomas Almeida to durable veteran Takeya Mizugaki, but all he can do is beat those placed in front of him.

The rest of the televised prelims don’t have much heat behind them. Artem Lobov and Chris Avila are probably getting the most attention and that contest was put together because of what camps they come from and not what they can do in the cage. Maybe I’m the only one who isn’t that excited about that contest, though I doubt it.

The FS1 prelims begin at 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT

Cody Garbrandt (9-0) vs. Takeya Mizugaki (21-9-2), Bantamweight

Garbrandt thinks a victory here will get him a title shot. I’m not so sure about that, but the savvy Mizugaki does offer Garbrandt potentially his toughest competition. The key word is potentially….

Garbrandt has been playing it smart by keeping his name floating in the press with his callouts of champion Dominick Cruz, creating hype in a division that lacks a clear cut contender behind TJ Dillashaw. If he can produce another highlight KO like the one he scored over Thomas Almeida, he could have his wish granted as a large contingency of fans are already behind him.

Mizugaki never has been a fan favorite in that sense and never will be, a shame considering he has often been a fun one to watch. The penultimate gatekeeper in the bantamweight division, Mizugaki has been in that position ever since the division was introduced to the UFC. It’s possible that he is slowing down at this point as there is a lot of tread on his tires, though he should still be able to pull out a few victories here and there.

Much has been made of Garbrandt’s amateur boxing career and rightfully so to this point. He rarely throws single strikes, almost always throwing his punches in combination, even when he is countering. The combination of technique and raw power found in him is unique which is why the UFC has put him front and center on the hype train to this point. Garbrandt tends to load up on his punches when he feels the end is nigh with his overhand right being especially deadly. However, has also shown the ability to sit back and win the fight strictly on his volume. He isn’t very defensively sound, but his fast hands have made opponents reluctant to take advantage of that.

The often used tag of good-at-everything, great-at-nothing fits Mizugaki to a tee. He throws a lot of hooking combinations that are technically sound enough. His lack of speed and athleticism often lead him to look for the clinch where he grinds away at his opponent slowly while looking for the opportunity to hit a body-lock takedown. Rarely looking for the submission, ground and pound is Mizugaki’s preferred method of offense when the fight hits the ground. He isn’t much of a finisher, but has proven to be durable which allows him to stay strong until the final bell.

What strongly slants the fight in Garbrandt’s favor – at least in my eyes — is his wrestling and athletic ability. He’s proven difficult to take down thanks to both of those factors. If Mizugaki is unable to score his takedowns, his chances of success dwindle greatly. Even worse for him is his last two losses were fairly non-competitive as he dealt with vastly superior athletes in Cruz and Aljamain Sterling. Garbrandt is on their level in terms of athleticism. That isn’t good for Mizugaki.

Even though I strongly doubt that Mizugaki wins, I do see a route to victory for the Japanese representative. His power in underrated (see his knockdown of Francisco Rivera) and Garbrandt’s chin is usually there to be hit. He’ll need to anticipate the opening since he can’t hope to match Garbrandt’s speed and that is probably asking too much. Throw in that Mizugaki is showing signs of being more frail than in years past and I see Garbrandt getting a finish. Garbrandt via TKO of RD2

Raquel Pennington (7-5) vs. Elizabeth Phillips (5-3), Women’s Bantamweight

Fresh off of back-to-back victories for the first time in her UFC career, Pennington …

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