USA vs. Argentina: TV Time, Live Stream, Prediction for 2016 Olympic Basketball

It’s perhaps unfair to label Team USA as vulnerable when it produced group play’s only unblemished record and an unmatched plus-117 point differential.

But it’s also unfair to call this team a superpower when its last three victories were decided by a total of 16 points. The Americans have been plagued by an oft-stagnant offense, a disconnected defense and a better-than-advertised Olympic field.

“Obviously, everybody wants us to win by a lot of points, but it’s not how it’s going to go this time,” Kevin Durant said, per USA Today’s Jeff Zillgitt.

As the Americans move into the Rio Games knockout phase, their next opponent is the last to defeat them on this stage—Argentina, which captured gold in 2004 and still features four Golden Generation players from that squad, including NBA veterans Manu Ginobili and Luis Scola.

It’s a poetic test for Team USA, as the recent near-stumbles have recalled visions of that 2004 collapse. The team’s second-leading scorer, Carmelo Anthony, played in that contest and still uses it as an example to help guide this star-studded roster.

“He’s very open about what happened there,” Draymond Green told reporters, “and he’s very open about how that pushed them into wanting to get back to the top.”

Will Wednesday’s matchup help the Americans find their footing for a gold-medal march, or can Argentina reprise its role as Olympic spoiler?

The Familiarity Effect

Team USA has just two Olympic veterans on the roster—Anthony and Kevin Durant—along with 10 first-timers. The Argentines have a core quartet playing its fourth straight Games together: Ginobili, Scola and former NBA swingmen Andres Nocioni and Carlos Delfino.

That level of chemistry can’t be manufactured, and the absence of it has surfaced on the American side in the form of missed rotations, blown defensive assignments and limited offensive movement.

“They’re just not accustomed to playing with one another,” Team USA head coach Mike Krzyzewski said on SportsCenter, per ESPN.com’s Marc Stein. “When you’re together for one month, it’s not as instinctive.”

Team USA’s defense has been skewered by off-ball movement and baseline cuts. Its late-game offense has often devolved into an isolation-heavy attack. There’s a trust factor that appears to be lacking on the American side, which shouldn’t be too surprising given how rarely these 12 players have suited up with one another. 

“Ever since the Americans started using pros in 1992, it has always been the lone danger with that formula,” wrote USA Today’s Sam Amick. “The best players on the planet, thrown together in mixtures that …

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