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Why Aug. 15 is important to contenders
- Updated: August 15, 2016
Good news for the Blue Jays, Indians, Rangers, Nationals, Cubs and Giants: Since the expanded postseason format was instituted in 1995, 81.7 percent of the teams that were leading their division on Aug. 15 went on to qualify for the postseason.
On the other hand, there has been a lot more fluidity with the Wild Card berths. Since 1995, 58 percent of the teams in a Wild Card position on Aug. 15 went on to qualify for the postseason. There is bound to be more of a crowd once the eyes move down the standings from first place.
If you’re still in first place in mid-August, you may not have officially earned anything, but you probably deserve what you’re getting, which is a better than four out of five chance to reach the postseason.
Of course, not all first-place teams are created equal. It is one thing to be the Blue Jays with a half-game lead in the American League East. It is another to be the Cubs with a lead of 12 games in the National League Central.
The particularly good news for the Cubs is that during this century, no team with that large of a lead has failed to make the postseason. And this sort of lead, at this time of the season, is not uncommon. But even this sort of domination does not guarantee postseason success.
The last team with a 12-game lead on Aug. 15 does not require a long …
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