Wednesday Del Mar handicapping analysis

9:37 PM ET

Best Bet: Green With Eddie (7th race)

First Race

1. Heat Me2. Flexible Ethics3. Radiant Journey

The leading contenders in this filly-mare claiming race are taking dubious class drops.Therefore, the call is a sharp filly from Northern California making her first start since being claimed for $8k by Jedd Josephson. HEAT ME has won 2 of 3 on dirt, and is drawn outside in a field with plenty of pace. The challenge is this racetrack has not been particularly kind to her closing style, particularly at this five and one-half furlong distance. Still think she can rally for the win against possibly vulnerable front-running droppers FLEXIBLE ETHICS and RADIANT JOURNEY. The recent form of ‘ETHICS is good, in the money her last five starts including three wins and with a front-running style that matches the track profile. The knock is she has been competitive against better company than these $12.5k claiming fillies and mares, yet drops in class. It seems odd. A similar comment applies to RADIANT JOURNEY, claimed for $20k last out and dropping first off the claim.

Second Race

1. Vale Dori2. Gloryzapper3. Autumn Flower

VALE DORI, Group 1 winner in South America, makes her U.S. debut for trainer Bob Baffert with a string of sharp recent works. She scratched from her scheduled U.S. debut on July 3 with a minor setback, but worked six furlongs from the gate a week later, followed by two bullet works at Del Mar. Arguably the “class” of the field, she seems ready to fire first start back. GLORYZAPPER, first or second all five starts, finished a creditable second last out in a minor stakes. Two previous starts at this N2X level produced runner-up finishes. Gradually improving, versatile style, she enters as an obvious contender. AUTUMN FLOWER has a history of outrunning her odds. She will rally from the back. MINSTER’SADVENTURE is not “fast” according to the figures, but she wins more than her share, 4 of her last 8 while gradually moving up the ladder.

Third Race

1. Huevos Rancheros2. Forever Us3. Declassified

This maiden-32 for 2yos is a tough way to begin the pick six. HUEVOS RANCHEROS might be qualified to upset. He was completely overmatched in his special-weight debut in the most productive 2yo race of the season; he finished last. But he seems to have worked well since, drops in class and picks up Flavien Prat. Likely improvement second time out much facing easier foes. FOREVER US pressed a slow pace and finished fourth in a rather modest debut. But second-start maidens always are eligible to improve, and the rider switch to Rafael Bejarano is key. DECLASSIFIED drops for his second start after finishing last in his debut. ZEN DEPUTY might be ranked too low by this handicapper. He showed speed and hit the board both starts. …

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