Celtics Summer Forecast: Everybody wins

8:21 AM ET

August is typically the quietest month on the NBA calendar. With roster construction just about complete, teams go into hibernation before things crank up again in September. Even with USA Basketball in Rio providing a rare glimpse of August hoops, the lack of a Boston participant will leave Celtics fans daydreaming about the upcoming season.

To help endure the doldrums, we’ve herded together writers from some of our favorite Celtics websites to take part in our annual Celtics Summer Forecast. For much of August, we’ll ask our panel to look into their crystal balls and predict how the 2016-17 season will play out for the Celtics.

We start with our usual leadoff hitter: How many games will the Celtics win next season?

Even as Boston’s win total has climbed in each of the past two seasons — jumping from 25 wins in Brad Stevens’ first year to 48 last season in Year 3– our panel has been cautiously optimistic about the team’s chances for success. It’s telling that, this year, no writer picked the team to win less than 52 games.

In fact, our 15-member panel pegged the Celtics for an average of nearly 54 wins, a six-victory upgrade from last season. While one writer went as high as 57 wins, the remaining members stuck in a sweet spot of 52-55 wins. There is obvious optimism that the Celtics are positioned to take another step forward this season.

This writer has maintained that the Al Horford addition has floated somewhat under the radar because Celtics fans, eager to add even more impact talent, were more concerned about the one that got away (Kevin Durant) and a lack of trades. Horford, a four-time All-Star, improves a Boston defense that lingered in the top 3 in defensive rating for much of last season. Even if the Celtics didn’t make obvious offensive upgrades this summer, that defense is going to give Boston a chance to compete on a nightly basis.

Just how much the East improved remains to be seen but, assuming a smooth acclimation for Horford, the Celtics should have the benefit of continuity with their core in place after consecutive playoff seasons.

We pegged the Celtics for 54 wins. The Celtics upgraded with Horford essentially taking Jared Sullinger’s spot in the rotation. Boston must replace Sullinger’s rebounding and — more importantly — Evan Turner’s efforts off the bench. But there’s no reason to believe this team shouldn’t win more games and challenge for the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference.

In Day 2 of the Celtics Summer Forecast, our panel examines just how far that win total might help Boston advance this season (spoiler alert: there’s a lot of optimism there, too). For now, our panel explains their record predictions:

Sam Sheehan, Celtics Reddit and CLNS Radio (54-28): I’ll go at this from an admittedly oversimplified statistical standpoint. If you were to simply run the Celtics’ record by the additions and losses to the rotation, and the respective win shares of those players, the Celtics would project to finish 49-33. The Celtics’ new All-Star, Horford, projects to be worth about nine wins …

continue reading in source espn.go.com