ESPN Stats & Info’s guide to the MLB trade deadline

12:31 PM ET

With Major League Baseball’s trade deadline at 4 p.m. ET on Monday, ESPN’s Stats & Info Group looks at the biggest storylines around one of the most interesting days of the midseason (all stats entering play Saturday).

The reigning champions and the Yankees are … sellers?

Entering play Saturday, Fangraphs’ playoff projections gave neither the New York Yankees nor the Kansas City Royals even a 10 percent chance of reaching the postseason.

The Yankees made the first major splash of the trade season when they sent Aroldis Chapman to the Chicago Cubs for a package that included Gleyber Torres (the No. 26 prospect in baseball according to ESPN’s Keith Law.)

Michael Pineda and Andrew Miller are under team control through at least next season, so the Yankees’ moving them would be a sign that they are true sellers. If they don’t unload Pineda and Miller, the Yankees can still add long-term assets and trade rental players such as Carlos Beltran.

Beltran’s 135 OPS+ is his highest since he reached 154 in 2011.

As for the Royals, Fangraphs’ projections show them with less than a 1 percent chance to make the playoffs.

The Royals are 4-10 in the second half. The only team with fewer second-half wins is the Giants (two).

Among the Royals’ biggest problems lately has been pitching. In their 14 second-half games, they have a 5.68 ERA, second-worst in the majors. Their OPS in that time is .612, also second-worst in baseball in the second half.

The Royals’ top candidate to move in a trade probably is Wade Davis. He has a $10 million team option for 2017. Since the start of 2014, Davis’ 1.09 ERA is lowest among the 147 pitchers with at least 100 relief appearances.

Given how much the Yankees got for Chapman, who is a free agent after the 2016 season, it is conceivable the Royals could get more for …

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