UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley staff picks and predictions

Bloody Elbow’s staff has submitted its predictions for tomorrow’s UFC 201 pay-per-view in Atlanta, Georgia. Anton Tabuena is bold enough to pick Tyron Woodley to unseat Robbie Lawler as welterweight champion, but everyone else is backing Lawler. Likewise in the co-main event, only Dayne Fox has Karolina Kowalkiewicz beating Rose Namajunas. Quite rightly, we all have Nikita Krylov defeating Ed Herman.

Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Monday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

Robbie Lawler vs. Tyron Woodley

Anton Tabuena: I really wouldn’t be surprised if Woodley comes in and just completely smashes Lawler here. Even if you don’t count his earlier losses, Robbie has taken an insane amount of damage in the last two years. He has been rocked and hurt several times even by a “weak” “point fighter” (lol) in Condit, so Woodley definitely has the physical tools to stop Lawler. That said, if he doesn’t get the job done early, it would be tough to pick Woodley. Not only has he been out for a year and a half, he has only gone to the championship rounds one time (a 4th round loss to Marquardt), while Lawler has been there 5 times against the very best in the world. This is a tough pick, and I’ve flipped flopped quite a bit even while writing this. I guess I’m going with the upset, Woodley by KO.

Mookie Alexander: We’ve had a batshit year, so it’d only be fitting if Woodley coming off of a 17 month layoff is the guy to just wreck Robbie Lawler’s chin (and then promptly struggle to outstrike Demian Maia for some reason). That may very well happen in round 1 or maybe round 2, but Woodley doesn’t want any of Round 5 Robbie. Anyway, I just can’t trust Woodley to pull this off, I really want to see Lawler vs. Wonderboy, and Woodley winning gets in the way of that. Lawler’s going to be methodical but “Ruthless” as ever, and then put Woodley away once he’s broken him down. Robbie Lawler by TKO, round 3.

Staff picking Lawler: Nick, Fraser, Mookie, Bissell, Zane, Dayne, Stephie, Iain, Eddie, PhilStaff picking Woodley: Anton

Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Rose Namajunas

Anton Tabuena: Namajunas will probably win this by overwhelming Karolina by throwing those somewhat unorthodox striking with high volume and pace. Rose Namajunas by Decision.

Mookie Alexander: Hmm … you could make the argument that Namajunas lost to Tecia Torres and I wouldn’t really dispute it that much. Kowalkiewicz is more technically sound and strings together some nice combinations. Namajunas sets a grueling pace and is the more dynamic athlete of the two. I’m a bit torn on this one as Karolina can take the decision here just on the basis of her fundamentally superior striking and not being completely overmatched on the ground like Rose’s past few opponents. I’m surprised only one person is picking Kowalkiewicz here, but I won’t make it 2. I just feel Namajunas will find a way to overwhelm Kowalkiewicz late in a closely contested battle. Rose Namajunas by unanimous decision.

Victor Rodriguez: I say this every time, I’m still impressed with Kowalkiewicz’s dismantling of Mizuki Inoue in Invicta. Namajunas is going to have to suffocate Karolina with pressure and fight in extra close to stop the constant leg kicks and she’s going to need to work that clinch while working tight uppercuts and hooks. Namajunas is already known for being a crafty submission fighter, but Kowalkiewicz is savvy and won’t go out easy. Both have fantastic cardio and push a consistent pace, but Rose seems to pour it on extra later in the fight, much like a female Robbie Lawler. Can’t see Kowalkiewicz finishing Namajunas, but can certainly see Namajunas wearing her opponent down late and breaking her will. Rose Namajunas by decision.

Dayne Fox: I know that I’m going out on a limb as Namajunas is physically superior, but I’m weary about Namajuna’s mentally. I scored her last fight in favor of Tecia Torres, though it was close enough I don’t have a complaint with Namajunas taking the decision. She said she had a lot leading up to the camp and wanted to take time off. That was April and here we are 3 months later and she is already back in the cage. Did she get the time off she needed? More than anything I look at how she struggles with cagey strikers — like Torres — plus sound grappling to prevent takedowns — unlike Angela Hill — and I see Kowalkiewicz taking this one. Namajunas starts out strong in the first round only for Kowalkiewicz to make the adjustments to take the last two.

Staff picking Kowalkiewicz: DayneStaff picking Namajunas: Nick, Victor, Fraser, Bissell, Phil, Mookie, Anton, Zane, Stephie, Iain, Eddie

Matt Brown vs. Jake Ellenberger

Anton Tabuena: This is going to get ugly. Matt Brown by TKO.

Mookie Alexander: I was so stoked when Ellenberger would get booked for fights in his heyday. Now? I just can’t see how he’s on a PPV main card in 2016. It’s sad to watch, Brown’s going to tear him apart, and that probably will be the end of Ellenberger’s career.. Matt Brown by destruction, round 1.

Phil Mackenzie: Reminded of …

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