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Hellickson’s changeup makes him interesting trade target
- Updated: July 29, 2016
So far, the top starters moved before the Trade Deadline have been Andrew Cashner and Drew Pomeranz, who are good but not stars, and in that context, suddenly that makes an available pitcher like Jeremy Hellickson perhaps more interesting than you’d think.
Over the course of his career, Hellickson been about the definition of average. Sure, he once looked to be more than that. As a Minor Leaguer in 2011, Hellickson was ranked as the No. 2 prospect by MLB.com. He was arguably the most hyped pitching prospect in baseball, sandwiched between Teheran and Aroldis Chapman, and then he started off his career with 400 innings of a 3.00 ERA.
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So that was a good start, but then the performance took a step back, and then the elbow surgery came, and Hellickson became an overlooked name as quickly as he’d become an intriguing one.
The Phillies are reportedly asking for a team’s top-five prospect in order to obtain Hellickson; otherwise, they’re comfortable extending to him what could be a $16.7 million qualifying offer. Which, of course that’s what the Phills are asking — no harm in talking up your own guy. The question is: how crazy is it, really? Or, more specifically, how interesting is Hellickson, really?
The basics: Hellickson’s 29, earning $7 million in his final year of arbitration, and will soon be a free agent. The reason the Phillies are asking for him what they’re asking: the former top prospect is currently running a career-best FIP-, a career-best xFIP-, and career bests in strikeout rate, walk rate, and swinging-strike rate. (All of that is not counting his 36-inning debut in 2010.) As far as full seasons go, Hellickson’s never looked better.
Maybe that speaks more to Hellickson’s past than to his present. The FIP is still 4.17. The ERA is 3.65. They’re good numbers, and certainly better, but it’s not like he’s suddenly looking like a front-of-the-rotation starter, the kind of guy you look forward to starting a playoff game. Working in the Phillies’ favor is that Hellickson, lately, has pitched like the guy …
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