UFC on Fox 20: Holm vs. Shevchenko Sober Play by Play – No Rhythm, No Reward for Holly

Author’s Note: I promise to be more diligent with these from now on. Just saying.

For the most part, analysts and fans alike joined the same chorus of “damn…Holm vs. Shevchenko will be prizefighting Ambien”. Much to everyone’s surprise, it will never be mentioned in the same breath as Renzo vs. Ohara. Or Silva vs. Leites. Or Stallone vs. Van Damme.

A quick round of applause for Shevchenko: she has a skillset and style that is hard to make look good, but that’s precisely what she does. Rewatching the fight, it became clear that there was too much stylistic intertia between both women for them to play their natural games (a suspicion I alluded to in our breakdown). Holm adjusted to this clash of styles. And she paid for it.

Round 1

4:40 The opening minute of the bout has a predictable hook, with Holm establishing her long, or outside rhythm. Despite the outcome, Holm is advanced for MMA when it comes to footwork. The general rule for out fighter movement is that you shuffle forward and back in intervals. If you’re always on the outside the way Holm is, these forward to back, and back to forward movements allow you to control for your resets when pressuring, and/or defending.

4:26 Nothing has happened except for distance games when Shevchenko lands a nice right leg kick to the inside of Holm’s right thigh. It’s a natural point of attack against someone controlling distance the way Holm does.

Shevchenko sticks another strike into Holm’s thigh, and both start slowly closing the distance on one another. Holm lands a few oblique kicks in the interim.

3:26 Holm comes in aggressively with an oblique kick and gets countered by Shevchenko’s right hook. The reason Holm gets countered is because she’s slow to reset. Shevchenko follows it up with an outside leg kick, and then a stiff right hand jab. At this point Holm has ditched the outside rhythm she ostensibly established early on.

3:09 Holm comes in with a short left (almost a feint) and follows it up with a right cross that drops Shevchenko. It’s nice sequential movement by Holm who recognized that Shevchenko isn’t an Edmond coached Ronda Rousey.

2:43 Shevchenko has already recovered. She uses her outside leg to land right inside of Holm’s right thigh.

The following minute is more technical exercise. Shevchenko is looking for the right hook while Holm is attempting some classic, and some not so classic kick traffic.

1:49 Holm’s first real attempt at a proper jab. She doubles on it, but they miss. Holm resets and then looks to close the distance, but Shevchenko counters with a jab.

1:20 Holm tries to close the distance with a left hand. Shevchenko uses Holm’s momentum to clinch up with her and immediately scores a trip takedown. Holm is able to use her strength to get right back, however.

Notes and Observations

Even though Holm scores a knockdown, the round was all Shevchenko. Holm begins with promise, establishing her long rhythm that would made the fight look drastically different if she had stuck with it. Instead she ditches her out fighter movement in favor of a more midrange, aggressive strategy.

Round 2

It becomes clear from the outset that Holm really isn’t going back to her out rhythm movements. She’s maintaining distance, but flat footed. Jackson and Co. want Holm to counter Shevchenko’s right hook, perhaps explaining Holm’s stance. Rogan emphasizes this point, noting about Shevchenko’s right hook:

She’s going to that well a few too many times. If they can anticipate it, they can anticipate the counter.

This is a classic case of “not understanding the cause”. Sure, more people drown on days when more ice cream is consumed, but the explanation isn’t the ice cream. It’s the environment that exists when more ice cream is consumed: hotter days lead to more swimming, which increases the odds of drowning. Attacking a counter is a nominal contradiction in terms, but calling Valentina’s right hook “predictable” strips her interaction with Holm completely of context.

4:03 Sweet axe kick attempted by Shevchenko. It misses, but it’s cool and sometimes cool stuff doesn’t need justification.

At this point Holm is still feinting her way through the round. Both women are trying to find the right range to attempt their strengths. Holm’s weakness is already being exposed, but it’s being exposed against one of the cleanest counter fighters in modern MMA. And no, I am not speaking to the quality of Shevchenko’s status; just the quality of her …

continue reading in source www.bloodyelbow.com