Why Top 4 Is a Realistic Aim for Liverpool in 2016/17 Season

Jurgen Klopp leads his Liverpool squad into his first full campaign on Merseyside in 2016/17, and after a reasonable start to life in the Anfield dugout in 2015/16, he will be looking for continued improvement.

The Reds finished eighth in the Premier League last term, though this disappointing finish was offset by their strong runs to finals in the UEFA Europa League and the Capital One Cup—despite defeat in both, this served as a marker of progress under Klopp, who succeeded Brendan Rodgers in October.

Rewarding Klopp with a six-year contract extension at the beginning of July, club owner Fenway Sports Group released a statement lauding his role in Liverpool’s “overall improvement and development:”

When you have an individual of Jurgen’s quality in the building it makes perfect sense to secure that person for the long term. To not do so would be irresponsible.

The overriding motivation behind this decision is Jurgen’s commitment to overall improvement and development. In Jurgen we have someone who is always looking ahead, always looking beyond his own wants and needs and putting the club first.

[…]

He is a world-class managerial talent and his leadership will be critical to everything we hope to achieve in the years ahead.

While principal owner John W. Henry and chairman Tom Werner haven’t publicly outlined objectives for Klopp following the extension of his terms, Rodgers, speaking to the Belfast Telegraph’s Steven Beacom in March, said the German would need to “win the league” during his time with the club to match their expectations.

That, according to Rodgers, would mark an improvement on his Reds side’s second-place finish in 2013/14, and this summer, Klopp finds himself in a similar position to the Ulsterman ahead of that campaign: preparing for a season without the demands of European football stretching his squad.

Nevertheless, owing to a number of factors, Henry, Werner and the Liverpool supporters should earmark a top-four finish in the Premier League as a realistic aim for Klopp in 2016/17.

Finishing in the Top 4

Ending the season in the Premier League’s top four is widely considered the minimum objective for a number of sides competing in the English top flight, with failure to secure Champions League football deemed a collapse for the likes of Manchester United, Manchester City, Arsenal, Chelsea and, on a lesser scale, both Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur.

With six clubs traditionally battling for four spots, this ensures the Premier League is one of the most hotly contested club competitions in Europe. The rise of a host of other clubs in recent years has magnified this.

Southampton, West Ham United and last season’s champions, Leicester City, can also consider themselves major contenders—with improvement at each club this summer reinforcing their claims.

This highlights the challenge facing Liverpool in 2016/17. And while there are many variables, mathematically, the Reds are likely required to reach a number of targets to ensure they finish in the top four:

In the past five seasons, clubs finishing in the Premier League’s top four have scored at least 62 goals. However, in the past five seasons, top-four clubs have scored an average of 76.3 goals. Furthermore, in the past five seasons, top-four clubs have conceded at most 50 goals. This is something of an anomaly, however, offset by the 101 goals scored by Liverpool in 2013/14. On average, top-four clubs have conceded just 37.6 goals. The …

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