UFC on FOX 20 odds, gambling guide

It’s fight night and you know what that means, another gambling preview of the fights, the odds, and my own personal break down of where the value lies.

As always, all stats come from FightMetric and all the odds are from Best Fight Odds. Net Value means how much money you would have made if you bet $100 on that fighter in every one of his/her fights that odds could be found for and is calculated using the closing odds for each fight.

Doubly as always, I’m just trying to provide the most thorough guide I can for those who want to legally bet or who just enjoy following along. I include the percentage probability so it is easier for you to say “Oh yeah, Holly Holm wins that fight 8 out of 10 times” and determine if you think there is value there. If you are a person who chooses to gamble, only do so legally, responsibly, and at your own risk. And now, onto the info.

The main event is a contest between two of the most decorated strikers in the UFC, and as such, we can probably expect it to be contested predominantly on the feet. Holm is predominantly an out fighter who relies on volume to rack up points. Though she made her name as a professional boxer, it is Holm’s kicking game that is a threat on the feet. Holm lacks real pop in her hands when coming forward because she doesn’t transition any weight into her shots, preferring to flick her punches out as set ups for her left kick. When fighting on the counter, she is much better at sitting down into her punches and landing hard shots then pivoting out of the engagement. Unfortunately for Holm, that won’t really matter here.

Shevchenko is almost purely a counter fighter and will rarely initiate an engagement. While she is an excellent counter fighter, this can sometimes lead to a lack of activity which can cost her rounds, especially against someone like Holm who is often content to sit outside and throw an assortment of naked kicks which won’t land but will fulfill the criteria of “aggression” in the eyes of the judges. However, when she does open up her offense it is likely better than Holm’s. Her combinations are more organic and she hits much harder than Holm. She is also a good defensive fighter in her own right.

The clinch is probably a stalemate but could be a Shevchenko advantage. Holm is athletic and big for the division. and has good positional awareness in the clinch, but she provides no real offense and mostly just looks to disengage, whereas Shevchenko can go to work with knees and elbows from different angles as well as a tricky footsweep that can catch her opponents off guard. If Ronda Rousey couldn’t maintain clinch position with Holm then I doubt Shevchenko will be able to for long, but in the brief periods they are there, she should be able to land the more meaningful offense.

Neither woman is a particularly skilled grappler and should it go to the ground, whoever ends up on top likely has the advantage. Both women have proven to be opportunistic takedown artists if something presents itself and it would be a good idea for both women to take some shots so as not to concede an entire avenue but I doubt there will be substantial ground work in this fight.

On the feet, I suspect this will be a mostly even contest with long stretches of relative inactivity. After a while of throwing naked hook kicks and stepping sidekicks, Holm will start to feel the urge to take runs in on Shevchenko. These are a hallmark of her game and resemble the bombing runs of Carlos Condit who comes forward with a planned combination and throws that series, almost always finishing with a kick to the body or midsection. Shevchenko is a veteran of 50+ Muay Thai/kickboxing bouts and these are her opportunities to land meaningful counter strikes. Holm’s punches in these combos are mostly diversions and I expect Shevchenko will be able to step in and crack Holly. Think Condit-Lawler only with about a quarter of the pure unadulterated violence.

In summation, I view this fight as a virtual coin flip and the fact that Shevchenko is +180 seems like a lot of value to me. In a mostly striking match-up, I think Shevchenko will land the cleaner, more effective blows and will have the edge in the clinch as well. She also hits harder and is a better defensive fight. Moreover, Holm is almost 35 and at the end of her athletic prime whereas Shevchenko is just coming into hers; Shevchenko is the one I would expect to see more marked improvements from in this bout. Holm’s size advantage and Shevchenko’s penchant for starting slow, combined with the strategic counseling of better fight camp mean Holm could very well win this, but over five rounds I think Shevchenko should be at worst +100. That is 80 points of free value.

There was a time when Gilbert Melendez may well have been the best lightweight in the world but sadly, that time is no longer. Melendez is returning to the octagon after a one year suspension for a failed drug test and he’s facing a former divisional prospect who looks to finally be making good on all of his promise.

In his earlier days, Melendez was a very aggressive fighter but as he’s matured he’s more likely to play at range behind a long jab while interspersing moments of aggression and countering when opponents step in on him. He also suffers from not having the most diverse arsenal of attacks on the feet, sticking mostly with the jab, left hook, and straight right and mixing in the occasional counter elbow (which he is very good at timing). His strength on the feet really comes from his versatility and his ability to fight moving forwards and backwards. This won’t matter against Barboza because for him to have any chance of winning, it won’t be accomplished by backing up.

Barboza is almost a pure out-fighter. He is a fantastic athlete with top level speed and good power. At range, he is one of the fiercest kickers in the UFC and he uses a lightning jab to keep distance effectively. He keeps a high pace and his combinations are thrown to hurt, making protracted standup battles with him something only a very select few fighters in the division should look to do.

Earlier in his career, fighters were able to have success by pressuring Barboza and forcing him to wilt in a firefight which is something the Melendez of old might be capable of doing. The problem here is that Melendez is coming off of a long layoff and has been showing signs of decline already, not to mention that Barboza looks to have improved his footwork and poise to prevent that type of thing happening anymore.

By today’s standards, Melendez is probably a featherweight and facing a legit lightweight who is younger, faster, bigger, and more athletic than him. Though Melendez is a serviceable wrestler it is extremely unlikely that he will be able to get Barboza, who is an elite counter wrestler, down. I expect this fight to look a lot like the Melendez – Pettis fight where Gilbert pressures early but is stonewalled by the footwork and jabs of Barboza. Gilbert …

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