UFC on FOX 20: Holm vs. Shevchenko staff picks and predictions

After a whopping 10 days without a UFC event, we’re treated to one in Chicago tomorrow night on FOX. The Bloody Elbow staff has submitted its predictions, and only Victor Rodriguez is going with Valentina Shevchenko to pull the upset against Holly Holm. The co-main event is a much different story, as there’s only a slight edge for Edson Barboza to best Gilbert Melendez.

Note : Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Monday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

Holly Holm vs. Valentina Shevchenko

Mookie Alexander: This could be one of those highly intriguing tactical bouts that will have a good chunk of the Chicago crowd heading for the exits. Holm’s career in the UFC is fascinating. It’s defined by the Rousey destruction but is otherwise surrounded by fights with decidedly power-lacking distance striking, with an emphasis on kicks. There’s going to be a lot of waiting involved here. Shevchenko is the best striker Holm has faced in her entire MMA career. This fight will be decided heavily on in-fight strategy, particularly if Shevchenko can get past Holm’s range and be aggressive. This is a tight call but I give the edge to Holm to rack up enough points, with her corner able to adjust tactically to anything Shevchenko and her corner throw at them. Holly Holm by unanimous decision.

Eddie Mercado: Footwork wins fights. Since both competitors look oddly similar from their backs, this could come down to who lands on top first. Holly’s movement seems to be the X factor in this fight. Holly Holm by Unanimous Decision.

Victor Rodriguez: This is so strange. Holm has far more mastery of the range and movement game, but Shevchenko is a tough out for anyone and her Muay Thai repertoire and counter game could lead to some really fun exchanges. Sure, it has the potential to be ugly, tentative and frustrating to watch, but I’m still banking on Shevchenko breaking with her conventional approach to put some pressure on Holm and attack the body consistently. Holm’s not going to work for takedowns unless she absolutely has to, and even then Valentina isn’t a slouch off her back. Valentina Shevchenko by decision.

Jed Meshew: This fight is gonna be a snoozer. Both are high quality fighters but their styles could definitely result in a staring contest with Holm just landing a lot that side kick that Jackson fighters have become known for. Now if Holm decides she needs to press the action more, that could make for a more fun fight but will play into Shevchenko’s counter game. Over 5 rounds, I favor Holm’s movement and ability to keep distance where she is the better defensive fighter and can win on points. Holm by decision.

Staff picking Holm: Eddie, Nick, Phil, Stephie, Mookie, Fraser, Tim, Jed, IainStaff picking Shevchenko: Victor

Edson Barboza vs. Gilbert Melendez

Mookie Alexander: Melendez has been out for a year, is otherwise in a division where it’s extremely difficult to rise back up the ranks, and is facing a vastly improved opponent in Edson Barboza. The Brazilian’s hands are better than ever, his kicks remain deadly, his takedown defense has gotten steadily better. This all boils down to Melendez still having his timing, quick hands, and ability to effectively pressure Barboza to where Edson can’t get his offense going. I’m tempted to say he can do it, but I just can’t trust Gil off the PED-related layoff, and Barboza just looks to be hitting his stride right now. Edson Barboza by unanimous decision.

Eddie: Barboza has been looking really sharp as of late whereas Melendez has yet to compete under the new weigh in rules and IV ban. Barboza has struggled with opponents who can threaten the takedown but I will have to see how Gil handles the weight cut. As of 7/20/16 I’m going to pick Gilbert Melendez via Split Decision.

Victor: Melendez is still one of the very best lightweights on the planet, and he’s definitely slowing down at this point. Barboza’s got a more lethal standup game and is super tough to take down, but it seems Melendez is savvy enough to pull it off to control the fight and make it as ugly as necessary. Giblert Melendez by decision.

Jed: Barboza is on the come up and Giblert is on the way down. He’s also coming off a year long vacation courtesy of the UFC’s drug testing policy. Moreover, Gil is older, slower, smaller, less athletic, and facing a guy who is really coming into his own as a range fighter. Melendez will try and pressure Barboza like he did to Pettis and that may work for a time, but Barboza has good footwork and a sharp jab which will make Gil’s night long and painful. Barboza via decision.

Staff picking Barboza: Nick, Phil, Stephie, Mookie, Jed, IainStaff picking Melendez: Eddie, Victor, Fraser, Tim

Francis Ngannou vs. Bojan Mihajlovic

Mookie Alexander: Ngannou is a stupidly high favorite (as high as -715). I know he’s a great prospect but he’s a HEAVYWEIGHT prospect, so weird shit is just begging to happen. Hopefully not tomorrow, but don’t be surprised if it does. Francis Ngannou by KO, round 1.

Eddie: Big boys! I flipped a coin and it instructed me to pick Francis Ngannou by KO at 2:42 of Round 1.

Victor: Well, that’s cute. Ngannou is a frighteningly powerful individual that just might have the cardio and takedown defense to paste Mighty Bojan. Sure, we also have the likelihood of it being another ugly slugfest punctuated by staring contests, but i’m gonna go with Francis Ngannou by violence.

Phil Mackenzie: With massive physical gifts, ever-improving technique and what appears to be a fine strategic mind for the sport, Ngannou is the rare breed of heavyweight where we should all be getting excited for just how disappointed he’ll make Zane when he inevitably goes down in flames. How will it happen? When? I don’t know. But that’s what makes heavyweight so thrilling! The odds are out of control on this one, but the obvious pick is still Francis Ngannou by KO, round 1

Jed: Ngannou is the closest thing we’ve had to a legit heavyweight prospect since…I guess Cain? Heavyweight doesn’t get a lot of real prospective talents and Ngannou would do very well in a combine. This is a showcase fight for him to build the highlight reel and really I just …

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