Don’t Overlook Geno Smith as the New York Jets’ Starting QB in 2016

Up until July, three long-term NFL contract issues have been constant narratives in the slow, quiet offseason churn. Since before the draft cycle even kicked off, we heard about the franchise tags of Von Miller and Muhammad Wilkerson, plus the ongoing free agency of Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Miller, an edge defender, signed a six-year, $114.5 million contract with the Denver Broncos. Wilkerson, a defensive lineman, signed a five-year, $86 million contract with the New York Jets. What this all means is Fitzpatrick’s apparent divorce with the Jets is the biggest contract dispute in the league, and as of now, Geno Smith looks to be the team’s starting quarterback heading into training camp.

The dichotomy of this quarterback soap opera is odd. In 2015, after signing a two-year, $7.25 million contract with the Houston Texans the offseason before, Fitzpatrick was traded to the Jets for what wound up being the 195th overall selection in the 2016 draft, a sixth-round pick.

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Fitzpatrick was supposed to be a high-end backup in New York, where Smith, then a third-year second-round pick, had started 29 games in two years. The general consensus was Smith was finally getting it, as he ended the 2014 season with a Week 17 game against the Miami Dolphins that featured a stat line of 20 completions off 25 passes for 358 passing yards, three touchdowns and a perfect passer rating.

That was before the punch heard around the world. In August of 2015, then-Jets defender IK Enemkpali punched Smith, breaking his jaw. That led him to miss the first few weeks of the season. With Smith off the field to start the year, Fitzpatrick locked up the starting job.

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Smith’s live snaps in 2015 consisted of one game: against the Oakland Raiders when Fitzpatrick went down with injury after a Charles Woodson tackle. Smith performed well in that matchup, posting a passer rating (87.9) that was higher than Brock Osweiler and Jameis Winston’s season marks.

For reference, Osweiler signed a four-year, $72 million contract this offseason with Fitzpatrick’s former club, the Texans, solidifying himself as a franchise quarterback, at least by title. Winston’s 2015 included winning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, which was enough for some to anoint him as the savior of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Despite on-field success and the fact Smith was on track to start the 2015 as the Jets’ starter, he’s being overlooked as the potential quarterback of the future in New York. In the last five games he’s played in, Smith has completed 98 of 151 attempts, good for a 65 percent completion mark, with 1,266 passing yards, eight passing touchdowns and three interceptions in the stat book.

Extrapolating that five-game stretch, a 16-game season would look like 314 completions over 483 attempts for 4,051 passing yards, 26 passing touchdowns and 10 interceptions. For the 2015 regular season, only three quarterbacks—Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Andy Dalton, whose combined contracts are worth $293.6 million—had seasons that featured 25 or more passing touchdowns, a completion percentage of 65 percent or higher and 10 interceptions or less.

In short, at least statistically, there’s no reason why Smith shouldn’t be discussed as anything less than a developing passer who was sidetracked because of a cheap shot by a former teammate and a coach’s strong urge to keep Fitzpatrick, the team’s opening-day starter, as the status quo during a 10-6 season.

Just because the team won double-digit games under Fitzpatrick doesn’t mean that they can’t improve or at least spend …

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