Diggin’ Deep on UFC on FOX 20: Holm vs Shevchenko FOX prelims

Perhaps the lack of quality on UFC on Fox 20 – or UFC 201 coming up next week – shouldn’t surprise us that much. After all, the UFC did completely stack International Fight Week which made it difficult to spread the wealth to the rest of the cards immediately following the high-profile weekend.

So while there is pretty much zero quality depth in terms of name value, that doesn’t mean this card is crap. Styles make fights, and there are some matchups that stylistically appear to be worth watching. To sum it up, the UFC knew what they were doing when they made Frankie Saenz and Eddie Wineland the preliminary headliner. You may not be aware of them, but I have a hard time believing you won’t enjoy that fight.

Now the part that sucks to admit. You may not care to catch the rest of the televised prelims. Each of them contain a wrestler known for blanketing opponents favored to come out ahead on the scorecards. Damn…maybe this card does suck more than I originally thought.

The FOX prelims start at 6:00 PM ET/3:00 PM PT.

Frankie Saenz (11-3) vs. Eddie Wineland (21-11-1), Bantamweight

In a division that relies so much on speed and quickness, it’s impressive these two fringe top-15 vets still are as effective as they are at the ages of 35 and 32.

Saenz, the 35-year old, has a lot less mileage on his tires than the well-traveled Wineland. Not to say Saenz is fresh as a daisy, but the former Arizona State wrestler didn’t have his first professional MMA fight until he was 30. He’s done well to make up for lost time, winning his first three UFC contests before dropping a competitive fight to Urijah Faber. Saenz is no contender, but he is one tough SOB and a good gatekeeper.

Many have called Wineland a tough SOB countless times, but he’s also shown signs of all the wear and tear of a 13-year career catching up to him in recent years. The former WEC champion had his jaw broken for the second time two years ago and was unable to find success in his return bout against Bryan Caraway. Is his career coming to a close, or was it merely ring rust following the injury? This fight should answer that question for us.

Wineland traditionally uses a lot of lateral movement in his boxing-centric approach. Boxing traditionalists would cringe at his footwork and low hands, but would probably give him a thumbs up for his head movement. The movement is designed to throw his opponent off of their rhythm and he usually does a good job of ensuring he doesn’t cross his feet. A lot of volume follows with more pop than your average 135er, though he’s no John Lineker. Wineland doesn’t get enough credit as a wrestler since he rarely shoots for takedowns himself, but he’s proven to be extremely difficult to take to the ground. Even if opponents have been able to get his butt to the canvas, he usually pops right back up to continue the striking battle.

That isn’t good news for the aggressive Saenz. Though he doesn’t rely on his wrestling as much as many expected him to do so upon making his way to the big show, it is still a central part of his usual strategy. Aggression is the name of his game and Wineland is not an easy one to corner. Saenz also uses a boxing-centric attack, but utilizes a more traditional approach while attacking in a straight line. He can be sloppy in his attack, only to turn around and throw a crisp combo punctuated with a kick, proof of his relative inexperience in the sport. Saenz is strongest in the clinch where he puts his punches, knees, and elbows to good use in addition to ripping his opponent’s feet out from under them.

This will come down to whether or not Saenz can implement his pressure on Wineland, which only the best have been able to do. Wineland didn’t look bad against the perpetually underrated Caraway. All the components were still there that he had before even if he had a bit of rust – Caraway is just a hell of a crafty fighter. What ultimately swung my line of thought in favor of Wineland is Saenz’s tendency to telegraph his attack, which makes it easy for an experienced striker to counter. Wineland is about as experienced as they come. So long as he can avoid Saenz’s takedowns, it should be pretty academic. Wineland via decision

Darren Elkins (20-5) vs. Godofredo Pepey (12-3), Featherweight

In his eternal role as gatekeeper to the top ten, Elkins hopes to turn away another young hopeful in the flashy Pepey.

Every time Elkins has received a chance against a higher level of competition, he has been shut down emphatically with losses to the likes of Chad Mendes, Jeremy Stephens, and Hacran Dias. Against everyone else he …

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