Clayton Kershaw injury means Dodgers have to think big

11:16 PM ET

You’ve seen the news: Clayton Kershaw might need back surgery after his recent setback in returning to the Los Angeles Dodgers’ rotation. The follow-up question: Are the Dodgers screwed?

Clayton Kershaw has missed nearly a month and still leads the NL in WAR.

— Ted Berg (@OGTedBerg) July 20, 2016

Clayton Kershaw: 1.79 ERAOther Dodgers starters: 4.36 ERA

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) July 20, 2016

Hey @ClaytonKersh22 you can have whatever you want from my back even though there probably isn’t a lot to choose from.

— Brett Anderson (@BrettAnderson35) July 19, 2016

To the issue at hand. The Dodgers are 14-2 in Kershaw starts; after losing to the Nationals on Wednesday, they’re 39-41 when he doesn’t start. It’s not a stretch to suggest that Kershaw has turned an otherwise mediocre team into a playoff contender. Now, it’s possible the Dodgers are better than a .500 team without Kershaw; it’s possible they have yet to play their best baseball. Entering Wednesday, the FanGraphs projection still forecasts the Dodgers to win 91 games, giving them an almost 40 percent chance to win the division and 82 percent chance to make the playoffs. That’s a 38-28 record the rest of the way, a .575 winning percentage. That’s certainly not a ridiculous percentage, although I’m not sure how much Kershaw is included in that projection. FanGraphs actually gives the Dodgers higher odds of winning the World Series than the Giants, which must include a Kershaw …

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