Alshon Jeffery’s Future with the Bears Is Unclear, and Strange

The Chicago Bears are in the middle of what’s becoming a wide receiver cycle. It goes like this: watch one towering target leave through either free agency or a trade, and he’s then replaced by another maturing young wideout.

When it’s laid out like that everything seems so simple, and routine even. Scout the receiver, carefully select the receiver in the right draft slot, develop the receiver and then jettison him before sacrificing salary-cap space throughout a long-term commitment.

They followed a few of those steps with Brandon Marshall. He came to the Bears as a veteran and finished product. But he was 28 years old when he arrived in Chicago and spent three of his prime years hauling in quarterback Jay Cutler’s deep heaves. Then he was traded prior to 2015, partly because of locker room conflicts, and partly because of his advanced age at 31.

What’s happening with Alshon Jeffery now, however, is much different. It reflects a potential flaw in the wide receiver replacement machine. One that may be there for the wrong reasons.

The deadline to sign franchise-tagged players to long-term contracts passed on July 15 without much of a peep from either the Bears or Jeffery’s camp. He’ll now be compensated quite nicely for his services in 2015, as his fully guaranteed one-year contract worth $14.599 million makes Jeffery the fourth-highest paid receiver in 2016, according to Spotrac.

But a receiver who posted back-to-back 1,100-plus-yard seasons in 2013 and 2014 isn’t tied down beyond that one year. That increases the likelihood of Jeffery, who’s just now entering his prime and is six years younger than Marshall, walking as a free agent.

That would be a blow, but a tolerable or even acceptable one for the right reasons. Bears general manager Ryan Pace could take his pick between these two statements, neither of which he would ever say publicly:

“We spent a seventh overall pick on Kevin White. And although twin towers would be great, we don’t want to pay two receivers top-end money. So White will be our guy now (until he isn’t).” “Look, Jeffery is a tremendously talented Pro Bowl-caliber receiver, and has shown that through four seasons (or likely five after 2016). But he’s struggled through a pile of injuries, and we’re still just not confident in his ability to hold up long term.”

But strangely, there’s a third and deeper reason for why Jeffery could end up wearing a different uniform. Let’s turn to Jeff Dickerson, the Bears reporter for ESPN.com:

The bigger holdup, however, is how the Bears seemingly view Jeffery. While Bears players and coaches publicly praise Jeffery at every turn, it’s unclear whether the organization considers him a true No. 1 receiver. Chicago’s approach in negotiations suggests they view Jeffery more as a “1A” or elite No. 2 wideout.

There’s a strong possibility the Bears aren’t motivated by either health worries or depth. Instead, their actions have been guided by a bizarre concern given the results and game film Jeffery has pumped out in abundance even with his missed time.

They’re worried about long-term production. And they’re worried about paying Jeffery like a top receiver or thereabouts, and then his results will fall below that bar.

It’s all puzzling, as nothing about Jeffery over his four NFL seasons—a significant sample size—indicates he’ll suddenly spiral down a cliff.

With the salary cap jumping dramatically each offseason the cost to keep talented young receivers expands along with it. So the price for a 6’3” and 218-pound leaping bundle of athleticism is steadily rising, and someone will gladly pay it. That someone should be the Bears, because losing a receiver like Jeffery could be a crushing setback.

There is, however, a delicate approach to evaluating a receiver who sat out a combined 13 games in 2012 and 2015, and two healthy seasons were sandwiched between those years.

Be careful about where your focus lies, and how much you want to zero in on just those two injury-shortened seasons. What’s more important: How much time Jeffery has missed, or what he’s done when healthy?

That’s usually not an easy question to answer because the unpredictable nature of injuries brings up randomness an athlete can’t control. For example, Jeffery couldn’t do much about the fractured hand he suffered during his rookie season. He also struggled through hamstring, calf, groin and shoulder issues in 2015, but still posted 807 …

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