Estrada’s ‘cue ball’ fastball propelling him to stardom

Marco Estrada may not have known he was on track to set a modern Major League record when he talked to reporters last week at the All-Star Game in San Diego. (He is! More on that in a second.) And he may not know why his effective fastball behaves so differently than most others, saying, “I think it’s just natural, to be honest with you; I’m not holding the ball any different, it’s just a normal four-seam fastball,” when asked.

But Estrada definitely knows there’s something unique about that pitch, and he’s on the right track when he talks about how it looks coming out of his hand:

“You know, I have noticed, there are times that I’ll watch a guy throwing 93, 94, and they’ll put it in slow motion, and you can see the ball kind of tumble up there,” Estrada said. “And I’ll look at mine, and it looks kind of like a cue ball. It’s just a perfect white ball. I notice my four-seamers are straight right up and down, however you want to put it… it looks like a cue ball.”

We haven’t used “cue ball” to describe a four-seamer that’s getting the most out of its spin, but perhaps we should. We’ve talked a lot about spin rate around Statcast™ HQ, and it’s been very useful, teaching us that high-spin fastballs tend to correlate better with swinging strikes and popups, while low-spin heaters dive and turn into ground balls.

Regardless of the terminology, Estrada has taken pretty good spin and turned into into very good movement, and that, along with his “cue ball” comment, is a pretty good indicator that he’s likely got a nearly perfect spin direction — that is, he’s getting the most of out of his spin by getting it straight up and down, wasting almost none of it with side spin. It’s a difficult thing to measure, but if we accept that all spin is not created equally, then pushing all of it in the right direction is a good way to set yourself apart.

Estrada’s fastball spin rate of 2,413 rpm is above average, and it ranks 11th of the 82 pitchers who have thrown at least 500 four-seamers. (Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are essentially tied for first, at 2,555 rpm.) Of course, Estrada’s average velocity of 88.9 mph is 80th of those same 82, a full 9 mph slower than Nathan Eovaldi’s. But Estrada is successful and Eovaldi isn’t, because it’s not just about speed. No one in baseball gets more positive vertical movement (which is to say, a pitch that sinks less, or defies gravity more, than expected) …

continue reading in source mlb.mlb.com