Pitching — and a little luck — has been difference between Cards and Giants

12:11 PM ET

ST. LOUIS – In what is so far shaping up to be the year of the Chicago Cubs, it’s worth noting that the teams that have represented the National League in five of the past six World Series are playing this weekend in St. Louis (Sunday, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN).

The San Francisco Giants, world champs in 2010, 2012 and 2014, are off to the kind of even-year pace most people expected. They are 12 games above .500 and have a 4 1/2 game lead in the National League West. Meanwhile, the St. Louis Cardinals, NL champs in 2013 and World Series winners in 2011, are languishing in third place, just two games above .500 and practically buried in the NL Central. They sit 11 games behind those steamrolling Cubs.

Are the teams really playing at dramatically different levels? Aside from the obvious distinction — the Giants have pitched brilliantly, and the Cardinals have not — the teams’ fortunes this season might be a useful exploration of the role luck plays in baseball. The Cardinals have scored 51 more runs than their opponents; the Giants have scored 29 more.

The Cardinals have struggled in one-run games, despite having hard-throwing relievers such as closer Trevor Rosenthal. Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire

Baseball-Reference.com has devised a notion called Pythagorean luck, which measures a team’s expected win-loss record based strictly on run differential. Based on the difference between actual record and Pythagorean projections, the Giants are the second-luckiest team in the major leagues, behind the Philadelphia Phillies. They “should be” seven games above .500, not 10. The Cardinals are the unluckiest team in the majors. They should be five games above .500, not one.

The Cardinals have battered teams when they have won, and they have lost most of the heartbreakers. They are 3-7 in one-run games. The Giants, who are either expert at winning the tight ones or unnaturally lucky so far, are 12-6 in one-run games.

It isn’t that luck can explain the Giants’ success entirely. There has been too much of it. Surely, some of their success boils down to how well they pitch. Much of the reason they are so …

continue reading in source espn.go.com