UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 staff picks and predictions

I know what you’re wondering and I’ll give you the answer right away. No, nobody on the Bloody Elbow staff is picking Urijah Faber to beat Dominick Cruz at UFC 199. Yes, Eddie Mercado is the only one picking Michael Bisping to upset Luke Rockhold in the main event. Yes, Tim Burke is picking Dan Henderson over Hector Lombard, and he’s the only one who’s choosing him. Yes, a hot dog is a sandwich.

Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Victor Rodriguez entered all of his predictions on Tuesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.

Luke Rockhold vs. Michael Bisping

Mookie Alexander: Bisping has everything to gain and really nothing to lose. He finally got his title shot, is unlikely to win, but if he does, then hooray for him. All that said, unless Rockhold’s twice-stated torn MCL hampers him a lot, there’s nothing that Bisping has shown over the last two years to suggest he can A.) Stop Luke Rockhold or B.) Win 3 rounds off of him. Lost in all of the sentimental value about Bisping’s long-awaited championship moment is that he’s really not dominated any top 10 middleweight since the Belcher fight. He’s lost to Kennedy and Rockhold, edged out Anderson and Leites, and had to rally to beat C.B. Dollaway. Meanwhile, Rockhold just bludgeoned Spinning Weidman, Large Cage Machida, and obviously just tapped out Bisping. There’s just too big an athletic gap between these two and I expect another Rockhold stoppage win. Bisping has to volume box Rockhold to death and that’s just not happening. Luke Rockhold by TKO, round 2.

Fraser Coffeen: I’ve very clearly underrated Rockhold for quite some time, picking against him in the Weidman fight without a second thought. I also picked him to lose to Machida, Belfort, and Jacare (one right!). But you know who I didn’t predict him to lose to? Michael Bisping. Bisping is somewhat underrated, but this remains a terrible stylistic match-up for him. Rockhold is the stronger, more dynamic striker, and there seems to be little chance of Bisping either getting the KO or winning 3 rounds. This will stay on the feet because Bisping is good at takedown defense and Rockhold doesn’t have enough to gain by fighting for the TD, but in a pure striking battle, it’s just a matter of time. I love that Bisping has his shot, and I know he’s going to fight with an insane passion, but that’s just not enough – ask Diego Sanchez’s face how that worked against BJ Penn. Luke Rockhold, KO, round 3

Eddie Mercado: When did I become such a Michael Bisping fan? I distinctly remember a sense of justice when Dan Henderson landed his patented H-Bomb plus one for good measure on the Brit back in 2009. I had a sense of elation when Vitor Belfort blasted the Count with a head kick in 2013. I remember being pissed off by the infamous eye poke that ended the career of Alan Belcher. I was even somewhat unimpressed with Bisping’s stoppage of Cung Le. So what happened to my disdain? Where did it go? I believe it started to vanish after the Count’s post fight interview with Dan Hardy following his second round loss to Luke Rockhold at UFC FN 55. The humility on display by Bisping seemed to wash away all of my dislike for the abundance of dickish remarks and my annoyance levels for the Count began to subside. Holy shit! Was I actually rooting for Michael Bisping to beat Anderson Silva in London? Have I really become a Michael Bisping fan? OMG I have! This cognitive dissonance I am enduring should deem my pick here untrustworthy. Michael Bisping, Split Decision.

Zane Simon: Rockhold’s counter punching game is devastating. Add that in with a brutal kicking game to force people inside and a powerful submission game once he’s on the ground, and Rockhold is essentially a huge, powerful collection of fight ending offense. Bisping is many things, but none of them are listed above. Being tough, crafty, and a hard worker just won’t be enough this time… just like it wasn’t last time. Luke Rockhold via submission, Round 2.

Jed Meshew: Bisping is taking this title shot because he has big brass balls and because he got very upset with being the namesake of my Hall of Almost Fame and wanted to be removed from that. But seriously though, even Bisping knows he isn’t winning. Listen to his talk pre-fight. He essentially equates his winning with Jesus walking on water and he’s not wrong – Bisping needs a freakin miracle. He specifically says that he won’t have the cardio advantage and needs an early knockout which isn’t a thing he is capable of doing. Bisping is going to rush forward to achieve the one punch knockout he is incapable of getting and that plays right into the counter punching game of Rockhold. If I was Bisping I would be as dirty as possible this fight – my fingers would never be in fist form and every low kick would find it’s way to Rockhold’s cup – to try and throw Rockhold off and steal it but even that isn’t going to work. Honestly I would love Bisping to win because it would be the most feel good moment but there is just no way. Rockhold by TKO (mounted strikes), round 1

Staff picking Rockhold: Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Phil, Fraser, Tim, Zane, JedStaff picking Bisping: Eddie

Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber

Mookie Alexander: I have every intention of sounding simplistic here, but if Faber can’t get the finish, then he’s really not going to be that competitive. I’d genuinely put more stock in Cruz/Benavidez 3 being closer right now than Cruz/Faber 3 will be. Unless Cruz suddenly got old since January, the footwork, wrestling, and overall striking game are just going to befuddle Faber for 5 rounds. Dominick is going to Cruz to a unanimous decision win.

Fraser Coffeen: This seems insanely obvious to me. Cruz gonna Cruz, Faber gonna injure himself partway through but grittily fight to the end and be praised for that grit. After this, I vote for Faber vs. Dillashaw, and maybe that’s the end of the line for the California Kid. Dominick Cruz, decision

Eddie Mercado: I have to agree with Mookie here. Faber needs a finish to get the W but will he? Faber just so happens to be the only man that has been able to finish Cruz inside the cage but that was a different time; early 2007 to be exact. The footwork of Cruz is going to make it extremely challenging for Faber to get off with his strikes and win rounds. I would love to see Faber win a UFC title but I don’t think UFC 199 will be the day. Dominick Cruz by Unanimous Decision.

Zane Simon: Urijah Faber seems like more or less the same fighter as when he lost to Cruz the last time, only now he’s older and slower… Cruz seems like he’s only gotten better and his last fight was probably the best performance of his career. Dominick Cruz by decision.

Jed: Let’s not waste our time here. I sincerely hope Faber wins because chaos is delightful but barring injury or a miracle guillotine, he has next to no chance. Cruz actually looks dramatically better physically than when he “beat” Dillashaw. Cruz is gonna put it on Faber who will quickly realize he ain’t winning and just holds on for survival. Cruz via wiiiiiiiide decision.

Staff picking Cruz: Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Phil, Fraser, Tim, Eddie, Zane, JedStaff picking Faber:

Max Holloway vs. Ricardo Lamas

Mookie Alexander: Great great fight. Lamas is the best featherweight Holloway has faced since Conor McGregor, although Holloway didn’t have a full camp for this one, although “Full Camp Holloway” doesn’t ring like Full Camp Mendes. Anyway, Holloway’s command of distance and is smooth combination striking really stand out to me. Lamas has good takedowns and is an opportunist finisher, so obviously Holloway has to be aware of that, but Max is the better all-around fighter and I’m really hoping he gets a title shot off of this performance. Max Holloway by unanimous decision.

Phil Mackenzie: Lamas needs to muster all his Lamas-powers for what would undoubtedly be the biggest successful Lamasing of his career if he could pull it off. Over time, his striking has gotten more reliable (jab and leg kick) and integrated with his wrestling, but this is a tall order. Holloway has shucked off a variety of strong grapplers with increasingly little issue over his UFC career, (Bermudez, Fili and Oliveira) and in terms of striking is longer, cleaner defensively, and fights at a faster pace. Max Holloway by unanimous decision.

Eddie Mercado: I see this fight a lot closer than the odds makers do. Holloway is on a hot streak but Lamas is extremely dangerous. The type of fighter to best Lamas to this point has been those with venomous strikes. Sure, Holloway has the accuracy and a surplus of volume, but does his striking repertoire possess the power necessary to hurt Lamas? Maybe not, but when you combine high output striking with active footwork and exceptional conditioning, you get the potential for a late stoppage. Max Holloway by TKO, Round 3.

Zane Simon: This will be a real test for Holloway, as Lamas is a much better finisher than many fighters at or near the top of 145. However, Holloway has increasingly shown his ability to fight smart (taking a clean, uninteresting decision from Jeremy Stephens for instance), and should win the vast majority of the striking battle. Lamas isn’t technically amazing everywhere, and tends to rely on opponents screwing up to beat them. As long as Holloway fights smart, he should be able to stay out of trouble and out work Lamas for the decision. Max Holloway via decision.

Jed: Boy howdy this fight is the hotness. I’m all in on the Max Holloway bandwagon and I’ve never been high on Lamas even though I know he is very good. I expect Holloway to win and to put a stamp on it but now the thing I’m most curious about is what happens to him afterwards? He will have won 9 in a row which is the longest UFC streak without earning a title shot already. If McGregor really does intend to defend his 145 lb. strap then Holloway would have to sit out a year to get the next crack at it after the Aldo-Edgar 2 winner. I hope McGregor vacates because Holloway-Aldo gets me revved up just thinking about it. Holloway by KO, round 3.

Staff picking Holloway: Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Phil, Fraser, Tim, Eddie, Zane, JedStaff picking Lamas:

Dan Henderson vs. Hector Lombard

Mookie Alexander: Dan Henderson has had a legendary career. …

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