What the Houston Rockets’ Dream Offseason Looks Like

There are two kinds of dreams: those you wake up from and want to go back to sleep so you can re-enter that alternate reality, and the kind that shocks you from your slumber in a cold and clammy sweat.

Fans of the Houston Rockets are probably having both this offseason.

With Mike D’Antoni on board as the head coach, the Rox have either the potentially perfect or fundamentally flawed man to lead them into the future.

D’Antoni’s Phoenix Suns offenses of the mid-2000s, led by two-time MVP Steve Nash, were centered on the notion of “seven seconds or less.” The strategy was to get a shot off within the first seven seconds of a possession, as the name suggests. Both of these line up with general manager Daryl Morey’s modern philosophy of basketball.

According to Calvin Watkins, who covers the Rockets for ESPN, owner Leslie Alexander said the hiring was a joint decision. “Daryl and I made this choice together,” Alexander said. “I’ve always wanted to play this way.”

So all is bright and sunny from the view in the front office. There are also reasons to be pessimistic: If things don’t go well, the Rockets could be no better, or even worse next season than they were this year.

Here’s how Houston’s (good) dreams can come true.

 

Help with the Defense

The Rockets were a pretty abysmal 20th in defensive rating, according to NBA.com. And it’s hard to see D’Antoni fixing that by himself.

Though to be fair, D’Antoni’s teams have also been underrated because the idea of evaluating defense by pace was just beginning to get traction when he was in Phoenix. From 2004-08, the duration of his stint with the Suns, their defensive rating was 17th in the NBA, according to Basketball-Reference.com.

That’s more “average” than “awful.” That was also on a team with Nash at point guard and Amar’e Stoudemire at center, two stars not exactly known for their defensive acumen.

Even with that measure of salt, without more help, the defense is not going to fix itself. That’s why the Rockets brought in Jeff Bzdelik and Roy Rogers to help run that end of the court. Bzdelik helped run the Memphis Grizzlies defense the last three years. While their defensive rating suffered this year, they were third in 2014-15 and seventh in 203-14. He told Watkins what his general goals were:

All five guys have to be committed. It takes all five guys to get a stop. The goal is to have teams take tough, contested [2-pointers] outside the paint and inside the arc. In order to do that, you have to have great defensive transition because we can’t be one-way runners.

Take away easy baskets so they can’t get a coast-to-coast layup, they can’t get a layup off one pass or two passes. They got to have more than two passes and get that ball swung from one side to the other side, and players clearly have to know the scheme and be held accountable, as we are held accountable by all of you.

Bzdelik can make schematic improvements, but it also requires the right players who can get work done on both ends of the court.

 

The James Harden Conundrum

How will D’Antoni fit with James Harden? It’s not like the coach hasn’t had a superstar to lead his teams before, but it’s happened with varied results.

Nash won two MVPs with him and led one of the most entertaining and electric offenses we’ve seen. As the coach of the New York Knicks though, D’Antoni was unable to figure out Carmelo Anthony’s offensive talents for his system.

As coach of the Los Angeles Lakers, he had Kobe Bryant as his superstar. The team had Nash, Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol on it as well, but they barely made it to the playoffs and then got promptly swept by the San Antonio Spurs. Lost in that disaster though was an interesting fact: Kobe Bryant had the best effective field-goal percentage of his career. He also logged a 29.7 assist percentage, the best of any full season he played.

Of the three stars, Bryant probably has the most predictive value in regards to Harden, who is both an elite scorer and willing passer. A better passing and even more efficient Harden is the kind of dreams cats in pajamas have.

Conversely, the worst possible outcome relates to Harden’s dependence on isolation plays. Howard Beck, then of the New York Times, now of Bleacher Report, wrote at the time of D’Antoni’s resignation:

D’Antoni never fully sold Anthony on his offensive system, which is predicated on ball and player movement and the premise that whoever is open takes the shot. Anthony thrives in isolation play — the antithesis of D’Antoni’s philosophy — and he is most comfortable as a primary ball-handler. That role is now filled by Jeremy Lin, the point guard.

Last season, Harden led the NBA in isolation plays with 566, according to NBA.com. Anthony was second at 393. To appreciate just what a massive number that is, consider this: Anthony and Harden’s combined 959 iso plays were more than any team in the NBA. (The Lakers led the league with 943.)

That’s not a judgment, but an observation. Harden ran a lot of iso …

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