Handicapping the AL Central: Can anyone top the red-hot Royals?

12:23 PM ET

1. Kansas City Royals: For all of the predictions that the Royals wouldn’t repeat (again, as Jayson Stark looked at in April), here they are, back on top. A big factor, again, has been the bullpen, which has been cashing in a win on almost every lead after the fifth — only one team in the league is better than the Royals’ 23-2 record when leading after five innings. They’re plus-3 in the win column over their expected wins total, with last weekend’s sweep of the White Sox — earned by beating up on Chicago’s bullpen — big part of the reason why. Eric Hosmer is putting up a huge year in his age-26 season — yes, he’s still that young. His .927 OPS might be the stuff voters decide an All-Star Game start is made of.

Less happily, losing Mike Moustakas for the season and Alex Gordon until the end of June in one collision May 22 could cripple the offense for the balance of the season. Designated hitter Kendrys Morales has gotten off to a horrifically slow start, with his .594 OPS ranking 173rd among 179 MLB qualifiers. There are still big question marks in Kansas City’s rotation, which ranks last in the league in quality starts while seeing Kris Medlen and Chris Young getting hurt and struggling. At the front end, Edinson Volquez has been steady and Ian Kennedy has delivered on the team’s expectations (although a 4.46 xFIP is a big warning light), but Yordano Ventura hasn’t put up a really strong start in five weeks.

A recent hot streak has the Royals back atop the Central, but can Ned Yost’s crew weather the injury storm? AP Photo/Tony Dejak

Why they’ll win: That bullpen. Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain deliver huge seasons, Morales finally gets his bat going and Gordon makes an impact once he returns. Whit Merrifield nails down the second-base job and launches a stealth campaign to steal the AL Rookie of the Year award from Nomar Mazara. And that bullpen.

Why they won’t: Losing Moustakas all year and Gordon for a month costs the Royals too many runs on offense to break away from the pack early enough to keep the rotation questions from mattering. The American League catches up to Kennedy and the rotation problem never gets sorted out. One more major injury in the lineup could critically weaken their shot.

Odds: Through Thursday, FiveThirtyEight has the Royals at 28 percent to win the division, and Chalk has them at 10-1 to win their third consecutive AL pennant.

2. Chicago White Sox: So all those Windy City World Series fantasies got blown away after the Sox took an 11-17 tumble in May. But that doesn’t mean they’re done. With Chris Sale still looking like the league’s best starter, Jose Quintana delivering as their No. 2, and Todd Frazier providing a league-leading 17 home runs, you’ve got identifiable quality. Add in the expectation that Jose Abreu should bust out at some point from his slow start, plus Adam Eaton’s value as a leadoff man, and you’ve got pieces with which to win.

Unfortunately, there’s the team’s power outage outside of Frazier. The Cell is a great place to put up big-time power numbers, but even with that in their favor, the Sox are just 13th in the AL in home runs. A big part of the problem is that White Sox outfielders are slugging a collective .366, and none of the four guys …

continue reading in source espn.go.com