Diggin’ Deep on the UFC 199 FS1 prelims

Depending upon your viewpoint, BJ Penn admitting to using an IV in March was either the best thing to happen to these prelims or the worst. Some of us still believed that a motivated and well-trained BJ was going to give us glimpses of what he once showed us on a regular basis over the majority of his Hall of Fame career while others of us breathed a sigh of relief, anticipating another beating like the ones seen over Penn’s last three fights that reflected a tired and worn out vet who can’t admit that he doesn’t have it anymore.

Star power isn’t everything to fight fans though and while the element of mystery on what we’ll get is greatly lessened by his replacement in Alex Caceres, we have a greater promise of a quality showndown when he meets Cole Miller. Beyond that there are some names that are still quite young in Brian Ortega, Beneil Dariush, and James Vick that don’t seem like they’ve come close to hitting their peak. And the women’s match? Hell, I don’t know what to expect out of that…

FS1 Prelims start at 8:00 ET/5:00 PT

Brian Ortega (10-0, 1 NC) vs. Clay Guida (32-16), Featherweight

Ortega and Guida couldn’t be on more opposite career trajectories. Ortega is one of the brighter up-and-comers at featherweight while Guida seems to be winding down a long UFC career on a whimper. Does the vet have anything left to offer the youngster?

At first glance this fight favors Ortega all the way as he is a submission specialist, something Guida has been prone to falling prey to. That includes Guida’s last appearance which was a 39 second loss to Thiago Tavares, someone Ortega has already disposed of. A closer look at the stylistic matchup and it is a closer battle than originally thought… provided Guida can avoid the submission of course.

Ortega has been able to win such a large percentage of his fights thanks to his aggression while looking for the available sub. That same aggression has also led to him taking a lot of damage from the same Tavares and Diego Brandao before he was able to pick up stoppages in the third round in fights that he was likely to lose had they gone to the scorecards. He doesn’t pay much mind to his defense and isn’t a real KO threat with his strikes, though he is willing to throwdown and can eat some heavy shots thanks to a chin that has thus far held up well.

What makes this fun is that Guida isn’t a KO threat himself but is just as willing to get involved in a firefight with punches flying everywhere. He’s traditionally had one of the sturdiest chins in the game which means this could add up to a hell of a brawl. The reason why few are willing to bet this could be FOTN is Guida has exercised a far more cautious strategy as the years have gone by, emphasizing wrestling and striking defense which has drawn the ire of the fanbase which once supported him so vehemently, explaining why he has gone from a fan favorite to a name often despised by many as his defense often has him darting in and out of the pocket without any real threat of offense.

Ortega may be a submission threat, but he hasn’t shown much when it comes to his wrestling chops offensively or defensively. It is true that there is always the possibility he catches Guida in a choke just as Tavares did in his W over Guida, though counting on that is horrible strategy. Ortega does have one of the most dangerous guards in the sport and Guida will no doubt be aware of that. Guida usually gets caught due to overaggression and if he is aware of Ortega’s abilities, I’d anticipate a more cautious strategy.

I only see two possibilities for this fight: Guida winning by decision or Ortega scoring a submission. Guida’s wrestling is sure to give Ortega problems and will give him the victory if he can avoid getting caught. The question is whether or not he will. I’m saying that he gets caught eventually as Ortega is good at making in-fight adjustments which will leave Guida’s UFC career in jeopardy. Ortega via submission of the second round

Beneil Dariush (12-2) vs. James Vick (9-0), Lightweight

Perhaps the most overlooked fight on the card, Dariush is hungry to get back on the winning track after his upset loss to Michael Chiesa while this represents Vick’s opportunity to break out.

Fair or not, a lot of people have been jumping off of the Dariush bandwagon. His victory over Michael Johnson was controversial which had a lot of people turning their backs on him in the first place only for Dariush to underestimate Chiesa’s death grip of a choke which led to the aforementioned loss. Those same …

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