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The Most Overvalued 2016 NBA Free Agent at Every Position
- Updated: June 1, 2016
NBA value is a tricky variable to sort out, especially this year.
The league’s new national TV deal with ESPN and Turner (Bleacher Report’s parent company) will send the salary cap soaring north of $90 million and take player contracts along for the ride, according to USA Today’s Jeff Zillgitt. What a “good” or “bad” value looks like will change dramatically this summer and again in 2017, when the cap spikes for the second straight year—presumably into the $110 million range.
Ultimately, a player’s take will be largely set in stone relative to the cap itself. The NBA, more than any other major professional sports league, sets strict boundaries for what its players can make based on individual service time and standardized team economics, among other things.
But while most—if not all—of this year’s free agents will pop eyes with the sizes of their new deals, the five guys below could be the biggest winners at their respective positions based on what they could earn compared to what makes sense given their potential impacts—good, bad and otherwise—on prospective employers.
Point Guard: Rajon Rondo (Unrestricted Free Agent)
Among a crop of point guards that tapers off considerably beyond Mike Conley Jr., Rajon Rondo looks like the second-best option.
Even though he’s 30. Even though he often hunts for assists and gambles for steals, often to the detriment of his team. Even though he was a sub-60 percent free-throw shooter during the last two seasons.
And even though the Sacramento Kings, with all their on-court futility and organizational rot, don’t want him back, as ESPN.com’s Zach Lowe recently revealed: “The latest scuttlebutt is that the Kings are prepared to cut bait with Rajon Rondo if the bidding for him gets beyond a certain threshold that is lower than we might imagine, given the Kings’ recent transaction history.”
Still, there figures to be teams out there this summer that, absent better options, are seduced by Rondo’s brilliant basketball mind, his 2015-16 assist title and/or his championship credentials dating back to days with the Boston Celtics.
Never mind that Rondo’s a reluctant shooter who no longer defends at a high level and has been known to give his coaches headaches. Between the massive influx of cash and the lack of competition for it, Rondo stands to benefit more from his current circumstances than any free-agent floor general should.
Shooting Guard: Bradley Beal (Restricted Free Agent)
On talent alone, Bradley Beal is worth every penny the Washington Wizards can—and will—pay. According to the Washington Post’s Jorge Castillo, the Wizards are expected to offer Beal a max contract on July 1 with a first-year salary in the $22 million range.
In the deluge of cap space to come, that price tag could look like a bargain.
At 22, Beal is coming off a season where he posted career highs in points (17.4) and field-goal percentage (44.9 percent). He’s also averaged 21.2 points and 4.6 assists across 21 playoff appearances.
The problem is that as great as Beal has been in the games he’s played, he’s been held out of enough with injuries to warrant serious concern about his long-term future.
Each of his four pro seasons has …
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