UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Garbandt – Renan Barao vs Jeremy Stephens Toe to Toe Preview

Barao and Stephens step away from catchweight to battle for featherweight status that could put them in the title shot corridor for UFN 88 in Vegas.

One sentence summary

Phil: One of Dana’s favourites takes on one of his least favourites in a fight which is sure to be high on violence, low on defense.

David: Dana can protect him from bail, but not from the former bantamweight king in this battle of on and off again catchweight fight carpenters.

Stats

Record: Renan Barao 33-3-1 NC Jeremy Stephens 24-12

Odds: Renan Barao -190 Jeremy Stephens +165

History / Introduction to both fighters

David: It seems like yesterday that Dana was talking about Renan in those sacred hushed tones he uses for fighters with no public profile but plenty of talent. Dana’s incapable of nuance,so Barao was always sold as a “great pound for pound fighter”. Fighters don’t have identities in the UFC after all. They just have loose profiles loudly attached to the UFC brand. Two losses to TJ Dillashaw later, and here he is. This isn’t some sort of fall from grace for Barao. He’s an excellent fighter. But moving up to 145 represents a modest whiff of desperation. Thankfully, this is a good fight to test his newfound status.

As for Stephens, his octagon obituary had been all but written in 2012 when he capped the year off with a knockout loss to Yves Edwards, who has yet to win since then. I have trouble deciding who he’s like more: Jake Ellenberger, or Matt Brown. He’s a dangerous fighter, albeit fairly limited. But sometimes that metaphysical danger is all that’s needed.

Phil: Not only did Barao embarrassingly invalidate the “#1 P4P, maybe” rhetoric when getting trounced by an unheralded challenger, he also passed out when cutting weight for the rematch, forcing the UFC to offer the title shot to, uh, Joe Soto. Zuffa don’t like being made to look silly, so Barao hasn’t been in their good books. Still, I think the weight jump is a good one- on a macro level, even aside from the weight cutting issues, the way he lost to TJ Dillashaw was reflective of the struggles you expect to see of someone who should move up: no issues with power or grappling, but getting beaten on pace, volume and speed.

What’s at stake?

David: Not a whole lot. Stephens excites Dana White’s amygdala, but he’s probably the only person in the world who would defend a title shot for Stephens if he wins. This is a guy who would have asked about the chances to keep OJ in the Super Bowl after his freeway run. An impressive win gets closer to a big fight than he deserves, whereas I don’t know about Barao. I think he’d have to flash knock down Stephens,and transition into a flying armbar upon reset to move the needle for Dana, Silva, and Co.

Phil: Featherweight is in a position where upward mobility has stalled out at the top of the division, for obvious Irish reasons. In related news UFC have started chopping away at the bottom and… uh, the middle of the …

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