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Hard to look past Exaggerator in Belmont
- Updated: May 26, 2016
4:11 PM ET
Entering the Preakness Stakes, the only 3-year-old with any prayer to beat Nyquist appeared to be Exaggerator. He seemed to really relish a wet track and there’s no doubt that a sloppy track played a factor in the Preakness, but the true key to the race was Exaggerator’s consistency. Regardless of venue or track condition or distance, Exaggerator always runs his race and he delivered as usual at Pimlico in the second jewel of the Triple Crown. With Nyquist out of the Belmont Stakes with a fever, Exaggerator appears to be as close to a lock in the Belmont Stakes as you’ll find in racing. Let’s explore his chances.
Ability: Since a fifth-place finish his debut, Exaggerator has either won or finished within three lengths of the winners in 10 subsequent races. His only off-the-board finish in those 10 starts was a fourth behind Nyquist in the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He subsequently won the $1-million Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes, earning a then career-best 103 Equibase Speed Figure in his final start at two. He finished second in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes and third in the Grade 2 San Felipe before his runaway win in on a sloppy track in the Santa Anita Derby. With his second-place finish in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness victory, Exaggerator positioned himself as the only 3-year-old within striking distance of Nyquist in the race for the Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old male. In the six races since the Breeders’ Cup, Exaggerator has recorded an Equibase Speed Figure between a 103 and a 107 in each race, topped by the 107 he earned in the Preakness. His last three Beyer Speed Figures are: 103, 101 and 101. It’s tough to knock a racehorse who always brings his “A” game.
Running style: Aside from a front-running win in the Delta Jackpot, Exaggerator’s preferred running style is coming from off the pace with one powerful, sustained rally. He was 15th early in the Kentucky Derby and eighth in the Preakness, both times behind a hot pace. But he’s no plodder. He had enough speed to track just a length behind a :44.49 half-mile in the seven-furlong San Vicente when finishing second to Nyquist. If the pace is slower in the Belmont Stakes, a very likely scenario, Exaggerator could …
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