Big 12 must consider fragility of College Football Playoff bids

3:03 AM ET

As the Big 12 ponders expansion this summer, improving its chances of making the College Football Playoff every year has become a real thirst.

The playoff has indeed been a driving force in the Big 12’s self-evaluation over the past two years, ESPN.com’s Heather Dinich reported earlier this month. Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby has acknowledged that playoff hopes are an “important component” in these discussions. So he sought data.

That data, prepared by Navigate Research and presented to athletic directors and coaches on May 4, estimated the Big 12’s odds of making the playoff in any given year are 62 percent. According to Navigate, changes the Big 12 makes going forward could mathematically help its chances.

Adding a conference title game could push those odds to 66 percent, per the firm’s calculations. Going to 12 teams might make it 73 percent. Going with 12 teams and eight conference games — a return to the Big 12’s past format — could put the playoff odds at 75 percent.

It’s easy to see why administrators could become enamored with those numbers. Keep in mind, though, that Navigate ran 40,000 simulations of an event that has only a two-year history. And that event is completely controlled by two things: subjective humans and unpredictable outcomes.

So let’s consider the fragility of a playoff bid.

With one leap, safety Steven Parker preserved Oklahoma’s win over TCU and the Sooners’ playoff hopes last season. Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports

It’s difficult for any data model to project the College Football Playoff decisions of 13 voters who each value different sets of criteria. Their reasoning, preferences and experiences vary. The people sitting in those 13 seats will …

continue reading in source espn.go.com